Archive for October, 2010

Sunday will be wet

CURRENT MODELS FOLLOWING THE TREND WITH CURRENT WX FRONT FROM THIS AM NOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND UPPER SHORT WAVE JUST PASSING THE CA/NV BORDER AT THIS TIME.

UP STREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO IMPROVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.

“STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT”

AT 5:00AM THIS MORNING THE 976MB SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO DEEPEN TO 960MB TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS RIDING ON A 180KNOT UPPER JET AND HAS PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. MAIN SHOT OF PRECIP FOR MAMMOTH WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 06Z. IN THAT THE UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE STORM….SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10,000 FEET UNTIL THE MAIN PRECIP BAND AND WX FRINT ARE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT….SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWN TO 8K ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

500MB HTS OVER MAMMOTH REMAIN ABOUT 576DM AT THE SHORT WAVE’S PASSAGE. AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE WET SYSTEM, THE UPPER JET REMAINS OVER NORTHERN/CA. SO A MOIST UPPER FLOW NATURAL TO THE SIERRA MAY CONTINUE SHOWERY WX FOR A DAY OR SO THERE AFTER.

MONO COUNTY EASTERN SIERRA HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SUNDAY:

OF NOTE FOR SUNDAY…..THE FRONT RIGHT EXIT REGION IN THE UPPER JET WILL BRING STRONG DOWN SLOPE WINDS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE PREFRONTAL INVERSION, PRECIP LOADING ON THE WEST SIDE AND WEST-EAST GRADIENT INTO AN ISENTROPIC SURFACE, VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. RESIDENTS IN LOCAL COMMUNITIES SUCH AS WALKER, SOUTH TO ROUND VALLEY IN THE MONO COUNTY/NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AREA. RESIDENCES THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED PROPERTY DAMAGE IN THESE AREAS BEFORE, “IN THIS WIND CLASS” SHOULD TAKE WHAT EVER PREP NECESSARY FOR TOMORROWS WIND/RAIN STORM.

LONGER RANGE: SO FAR…..NO DOWN STREAM BLOCKING IS OCCURRING SO STORM DOOR IS OPEN FOR THE TIME BEING…..ANOTHER AND MORE SIGNIFACANT SYSTEM IS FORECASRTED FOR CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT “MAY” BRING SIGNIFACANT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY…STAY TUNDED…..

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS……….:-)

Wet system inbound

WET SYSTEM HEADED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY….

THE DWEEBS LIKE THE EUROPEAN MODEL THE BEST IN THE CURRENT PATTERN AS LAST NIGHTS OPERATIONAL MODEL CONTINUES THE TREND WITH GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT….

CURRENTLY….A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII IS FORECASTED TO MOVE EAST, INITIATING PRECIP FOR NORTHERN CA EARLY SATURDAY AM WITH A WAVE TRAIN OF WET SYSTEMS BACKED UP TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. TPW/S ARE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL BAND ABOUT 1000 WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN CA SATURDAY MORNING…

MORE IMPORTANTLY….THE MAIN SHOT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA SUN AND EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS AND WITH RAINS IN THE MAMMOTH AREA WELL OVER AN INCH BY SUNDAY PM. SIERRA CREST QPF ACCORDING TO THE EC IS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE NEAR YOSEMITE AND THE MAMMOTH CREST. SNOW LEVELS TO RISE WELL ABOVE 10,000 SUNDAY. THE UPPER JET WITH THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL CA. THE UPPER JET WILL TREND NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK THEN SAG SOUTH AGAIN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK:

THERE MAY BE ANOTHER STORM BEFORE ALL HALLOWS EVE AS THE EC AND GFS BOTH SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING.

THE GOOD NEWS….IS THAT SO FAR…THE NAO IS BEHAVING ITSELF AND SO THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE WITHOUT ANY DOWN STREAM BLOCKING.

MORE LATER……

The cake is still in the oven

FEW SHOWERS HERE OR THERE TODAY….NOT MUCH GOING ON UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY……WET SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME HEADED INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SIERRA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY…….MOISTURE IS FROM TYPHOON MEGI (SEE EARLIER DISCUSSION)….GFS IS DRYER….SO JURY NOT COMPLETELY IN YET…. ECMWF PAINTS 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER YOSEMITE BY MONDAY….WITH SNOW LEVELS QUITE HIGH. COOLER AIR FOLLOWING SO A GOOD FROST LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CPC….STRONGEST LA NINA SINCE 1949

THE STRONGER THE LA NINA THE GREATER THE ODDS FOR DRYER THEN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA……MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE/SUBTROPICAL FEEDS WILL BE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST THIS WINTER. THE DWEEBS ALSO “VERY CONCERNED” ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR DRIER THEN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SIERRA. STILL AT THIS POINT…..THE CAKE IS STILL IN THE OVEN BAKING……..WILL SEE HOW EVERYTHING IS SHAPED UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER.