SOME WARMING THIS WEEKEND…..THEN STRONG GUSTY NE WINDS TO RAKE THE CREST…..RETROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH STILL IN THE CARDS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK
Friday November 12, 2010
Posted at 8:58 am by Howard
Fabulous opener yesterday for Mammoth Mt, on a 1 to 3 foot base. a combination of natural and man made snow is an excellent mix! A very snow warming trend of a degree or two each day is expected as we go through the weekend…….expect highs in Mammoth 45 to 50. lows in the low to mid 20s.
The Eastern Pacific high will remain parked out near 140 west the next 6 to 7 days bringing for the most part, beautiful weather to the Eastern Sierra. The only areas of discomfort will be the very upper elevations where winds will kick up later in the weekend due to short wave energy dropping south through the Great Basin. The Dweebs did notice quite a bit of 700mb moisture coming through early Sunday morning into the late afternoon from the north. Precipitation graphics did not indicate any QPF. With the eastern pacific high strengthening into the weekend, warmer temps should occur aloft while shots of cooling will reach the Eastern Sierra valleys, possibly strengthening inversions.
With the upper high anchored through Wednesday little change is expected between the weekends weather and mid week. High temps will probably push just above the 50 degree mark by Wednesday.
Beyond mid week, the GFS is the most aggressive in bringing in a storm to the west coast by Friday/Saturday, although it does not have enough support of its ensemble members for the big changes touted from the several operational runs of recent days. The ECMWF (Euro) shows a much slower trend to the idea of dropping the upper jet south through the pacific northwest, then into California by the end of the week. However, it still keeps the upper jet core north of the Mammoth area. The Dweebs will say that potentially there are all kinds of possibilities with this pattern change including at some point a subtropical/ tropical tap for the west coast…..and in that there has been little history of this winter so far, the Dweebs will wait until early next week before speculating on the longer term.