12z Saturday GFS Model coming in a bit dryer this morning…..
Saturday December 4, 2010
Posted at 6:09 am by Howard
Just a quick update this morning to indicate that the 12z run of one of the models was a bit dryer than yesterday. However the WRF is still pretty bullish for about an inch of QPF. CRFC has about 1.25 just west of the crest. In that this storm is warmer/wetter then several in the recent past, with Snow to Water Ratios equal to or less than 10:1 ….. considering the topography, 12 to 15 inches is probably the most that we will see up upon Ol’ Woolly!
The majority of all this will occur Sunday night through mid Morning Monday…..The snow level begins about 8000 feet Sunday am, lowering to 5500 by 12z Monday morning.
Of note…the furthest reaches of the fantasy charts or the second half of week 2 has been fairly consistent in sagging the upper jet south over Central Ca. again. The wavelength does open up across the Conus and out over the Western Atlantic by then. The block over the Aleutians does break down during week 2.
Another important feature to watch which may be supportive, is that another MJO may be developing toward mid-month. (See) http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Then check with http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf for the weekly discussion, early next week to get an update on a possible MJO flair-up. MJO can modulate the westerlies and is usually a pattern changer.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms