Fab Weekend Followed By Fab Snowfall Later In The Week
Saturday December 11, 2010
Posted at 9:23 am by Howard
OK……Here we go…..
First of all…This is not just any La Nina Winter….This is La Nina on Steroids…..Check this out for 12-10-2010. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html Look at the nose of the western extension of the cold/negative SSTAs all the way to 150E! And….what the heck is this? Another extension of La Nina off South America from 70w/25S feeding into the main cold stream to 150w? Also Solar Cycle 24 is an incipient maladroit. Will it get going before it is over…..Solar Global Cooling?
FLASH! The warm wet pattern of Wednesday through Friday is over. A highly amplified upper ridge has taken over and we’ll have fabulous weather through Sunday! The 500ht 588dm height line gets very close to Bishop Sunday AM. Still going with a 70 for Bishop Sunday. These temps are 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Now on to next week. First of all….Yes, it is going to snow. The question is always, how much. The short answer is a lot. However, it may take a good part of next week and into the following week to get the fuse lit.
I like what MJO is doing… It is well into the Phase 5 and still building in strength contrary to some dynamic models. It should move into Phase 6 soon. Hope she holds together Scotti! I am attributing at least some support of the change in the pattern next week to MJO.
Here are the ponderings:
The ECMWF and Canadian are both very wet later in the week and especially next week. The GFS is not. The Dweebs feel that the Europien would be the superior model to the GFS, in handling QPF in the upcoming flow pattern for the west coast next week and into the next. So, the rational is the GFS is too dry and gets rid of the pattern too fast…in stead of developing it further.
The other supporting evidence is MJO. The Dweebs feel that next week beyond the 19th is going to be particularly wet. However, there is the potential for rising snow levels as well! So it could get messy for a spell. I think that we will have to be concerned about the building of the subtropical ridge at this latitude later next week; (Week-2).
The first system for Tuesday night/Wednesday does not look major. (QPF .5 to .75)
The Dweebs will fine tune snow levels later.
Bigger storm later in the week…………………Stay tuned…………:-)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms