Blue Bird Morning…..Watch out for Ice Falling From The Trees The Next Few Days!
Thursday December 23, 2010
Posted at 8:23 am by Howard
Definitely a Blue Bird Morning! But not a Blue Bird in Sight!…….
Short wave ridging moved in over night cutting the winds down over the upper elevations and making for the most beautiful morning in Mammoth Lakes. With up to 18 inches of powder over a 12 to 16 foot base, skiing/boarding will be truly epic today!
This mornings 12z WRF model shows some high clouds moving in today and temperatures will warm up into the 40s by either today or tomorrow Friday.
Falling Ice Concerns:
The concern is that the Pine Trees are about as loaded with heavy ice as they can be! Once the sun hits those trees in the coming days they will unload. Keep yourself as well as your kids and cars away from the trees especially during the late morning and afternoon. Some of those chunks of ice will weigh over 50 lbs!
The Global models from 06Z showed the next two storms over the northern pacific. The leading system was located about 2000 miles to the northwest at 45 north in the Gulf of AK.
The new 12z WRF holds the precip off in Mammoth until late Saturday afternoon. Additionally, the new 12z WRF Thursday is pretty wet for this kind of storm developing over 2.50 inches of QPF for the sierra crest. The storm is coming in negative tilt and so it will little if any orographics. This model may be over done on the QPF….especially since the better global model GFS 12z run Thursday has the system splitting as it comes in. More later on this later.
The next storm is located beyond the dateline and about 5000 mi west of Monterrey Ca. at 172 East.
The global models show this short wave in the westerlies moving around an amplifying ridge over the Bering Sea then dropping southeast toward California. The timing for the Sierra is about Wednesday. However…the new Thursday 12z gfs has this system being dampening out rapidly due to rising heights at 140 west over the Eastern Pacific. It may be that only a few showers may fall from this system on Wednesday. Furthermore, this system may turn out to be not much more then an inside slider with a strong NW jet over Northern Ca with high winds, snow showers and falling temps for Mammoth beginning about Wednesday the 30th and into the end of the year. Thereafter, the west looks pretty tranquil for a time.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
4:15 pm update from HPC QPF has Mammoth in the 1 inch range. So maybe up to a foot of powder….Saturday night through Sunday am…..
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.