The Dweebs Will Be Ringing In The New Year!
Friday December 31, 2010
Posted at 8:54 am by Howard
The Dweebs are in agreement that today the 31st of December will be a fair weather day with an increasing amount of high clouds later in the day. 50 MPH winds are expected over the sierra crest. Short wave ridging is moving in from the northwest ahead of a short wave trof that will push up a lot of warm air advection, as it tracks toward us. The preliminary QPF forecast from CRFC shows about an inch on the west side of the crest over the next two to three days. Most forecasters are using the track of the ECMWF which is a compromise from the GFS. The new 12z WRF has the system further west then the global GFS model from 06Z Friday and is being discounted this morning.
Again…the idea is that cold air is dammed up over the Great Basin and so precip is likely to be more of the warm advection type as the system slides ESE. The forecasters at HPC like the middle ground of the ECMWF which drives the energy into the central coast Saturday afternoon, then into the Central Sierra that night and continues it into Sunday. The upper low becomes stationary over Central Ca Monday PM before shifting SSW Tuesday….before shifting east through the southern states.
Best guess is for 3 to 6 inches in town and 6 to 12 over the upper elevations by Sunday PM.
This is a pattern that may produce snowfall for the Owens Valley next week if the current Arctic air does not get flushed out.
There are some signs in the long range…..10 days out of another developing quasi tropical connection. The models so far are not consistent…..however…..this needs to be watched closely as this Fall/Winter has been highlighted by the tropical connection. Additionally, sometimes….These kinds of patterns have a habit of repeating themselfs in one fashion or another.
The 8 to 14 Day outlook is wet for Central and Southern California with the mean iso height of 558dm through Mammoth stretched well off shore.
Roofs in town are probably snow loaded to their max. It would be advisable for homeowners to make plans on removing excess snow on roofs this first week of January and create extra snow storage if possible.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.