Archive for year 2010

Christmas Day Eve Storm to bring a good chance of “Light Snow” for the Town Saturday Night-Sunday AM

Over the past several model runs…there has been a decisive trend to split the next upper trof as it comes into Central California. Negative tilt trofs sometimes have a tendency to do this in the southern portion as the northern portion of the storm with the jet on the front side of the trof is moving along with the system while in this case…lifting NE; while the upper jet on the back side is still digging southeast! The split is over Central Ca and will directly effect the snowfall amounts over Mammoth Lakes.

It is for this reason that the Dweebs now feel that this will be a light precipitation event as the front sheers into the Mammoth portion of the Eastern Sierra. 

Best guess….

3 to 5 inches in town and 4 to 8 innches up on Mammoth Mountain by Sunday Mid-Morning.

500mb-1000mb thickness falls of 100 dm should bring some 8 to 10 degrees of cooling by Sunday. 

Winds:

Winds were pretty light this morning at the main lodge. Even over the crest they were only 30mph gusting to 35.

The winds will increase and strengthen throughout the day with gusts to 60mph by the the afternoon over the crest. It will be even windier by Christmas AM…but should begin to subside a bit later in the day.

Snow will begin falling by late afternoon and then snow is likely Saturday night/Sunday am. Snow level is expected to be at 6500 feet.

Fair weather will return for Monday and Tuesday.


There appears to be a stronger storm out there for the 29th/30th that will be windier, colder and bring moderate amounts.  (About a foot+)



The Dweeber……………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Blue Bird Morning…..Watch out for Ice Falling From The Trees The Next Few Days!

Definitely a Blue Bird Morning!  But not a Blue Bird in Sight!…….

Short wave ridging moved in over night cutting the winds down over the upper elevations and making for the most beautiful morning in Mammoth Lakes. With up to 18 inches of powder over a 12 to 16 foot base, skiing/boarding will be truly epic today!

This mornings 12z WRF model shows some high clouds moving in today and temperatures will warm up into the 40s by either today or tomorrow Friday. 

Falling Ice Concerns:

The concern is that the Pine Trees are about as loaded with heavy ice as they can be!  Once the sun hits those trees in the coming days they will unload. Keep yourself as well as your kids and cars  away from the trees especially during the late morning and afternoon.  Some of those chunks of ice will weigh over 50 lbs!

 

Forecast models: 

 The Global models from 06Z showed the next two storms over the northern pacific. The leading system was located about 2000 miles to the northwest at 45 north in the Gulf of AK.

 The new 12z WRF holds the precip off in Mammoth until late Saturday afternoon. Additionally, the new 12z WRF Thursday is pretty wet for this kind of storm developing over 2.50 inches of QPF for the sierra crest. The storm is coming in negative tilt and so it will little if any orographics.  This model may be over done on the QPF….especially since the better global model GFS 12z run Thursday has the system splitting as it comes in. More later on this later.

The next storm is located beyond the dateline and about 5000 mi west of Monterrey Ca. at 172 East.

The global models show this short wave in the westerlies moving around an amplifying ridge over the Bering Sea then dropping southeast toward California. The timing for the Sierra is about Wednesday. However…the new Thursday 12z gfs has this system being dampening out rapidly due to rising heights at 140 west over the Eastern Pacific. It may be that only a few showers may fall from this system on Wednesday. Furthermore, this system may turn out to be not much more then an inside slider with a strong NW jet over Northern Ca with high winds, snow showers and falling temps for Mammoth beginning about Wednesday the 30th and into the end of the year.  Thereafter, the west looks pretty  tranquil for a time. 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)


4:15 pm update from HPC QPF has Mammoth in the 1 inch range. So maybe up to a foot of powder….Saturday night through Sunday am…..



——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

A Mammoth Power Outrage!! Edision, Bury Your High Voltage Power Lines!

I hope this one gets off into the net!  This is the second time I am posting today. The first after compiling some interesting information, got hit with another power outage and lost everything.


Some Stats…..

According to DWP *16 inches of Water from this storm up on Mammoth Pass. (un-verified)

There is 26 inches total for the winter.


(Comment)   Whats really interesting is that the 5 Day QPF from HPC called for 14.9 inches pretty much Bulls-eye over Mammoth!

Bob Solima says that we are now normal for mid February…precip wise.

The Mammoth Ranger station Totalled 13.21 inches of water and 9 feet and one inch of snow since the 15th counting today. And speaking with ranger Dan, the snowfall on the 20th was flowing over the can and so there was probably more  than that!  So you can quote 9 feet with ease!


As of 3:40 pm Wednesday….Mammoth Mountain was reporting 11 to 16 foot base and 10 to 18 inches of new!  Snow showers are still occurring…..

My take on the storm:

Once again there are many that are coming up for the reasons why we are having so much snow in a normally dry ENSO state.


Beating the odds……La Nina sometimes are wet!  However…..odds are they are usually dry for Southern Ca. 

I.

1. Contrary to some news broadcasts, this is not an El Nino storm or an El Nino anything! 

2. This was not a pineapple connection, concoctions or the pineapple express.

3. Not all tropical connections are Pineapple Connections.

4. Was this the tropical connection that the Dweebs forecasted for this winter early in the Fall?  No…This tropical connection does not count.

What does it matter? If you a weather junkie, hobbyist or weather purest….you know that tropical connections can occur, from different patterns.

II. The classic Pineapple express or connection is one that usually, but not always occurs during an either weak La Nina, or weak El Nino ENSO years. It is the MJO that forces the amplification, whereby the inter-seasonalsystem moves toward the dateline, forcing enhanced rain fall to move toward Hawaii.  The pattern begins with:

1. Retrogression and amplification of the Long wave high near 130 to 140west. The Upper high builds north into the northern Latts while the polar jet moves over the sharp upper high then diverges to the right and deepens southwest off the BC coast.  At the same time, a split in the jet occurs with the southern branch undercutting the high. The upper flow combines confluently and clobbers central and northern Ca. Additionally….many Pineapple connections bring mostly rain to the Sierra at 8000 feet.  The Classic Pineapple connection was the 1986 February 16th thru 19 storm! Incidentally, most Pineapple connections do not effect Southern Ca!

III. This pattern and tropical connection was forced both by the strong blocking high (over the Dateline, Not AK!) and by an upper anti cyclone over Greenland that retrograded to central Canada. Cross polar flow deepened the Gulf Of AK vortex and depressed the vortex further south. The southern branch of the upper flow from the tropical system south of the block (REX BLOCK) at dateline, into the west coast is now history!

The Dweebs take:

1. The warm water pool that spent all Summer (remember the summer that never was in LA) was located north of Hawaii. The net result were above normal heights north of the Hawaiian Islands, and perpetual troughingalong the west coast coupled with negative SSTA’s along the west coast. (Negative phase PDO) Cold SC Summer.

2. In September something changed!  the Warm water pool shifted west….west of the dateline.  Persistent blocking set up near the dateline for a long time. Sure there was the October singulary when a TS, negatively phased with the westerlies and blew the doors off the Block. The block again reformed.  Lets face it . Blocking is the big signature of La Nina! there has been strong blocking over the NW Atlantic as well.  When you get strong blocking, the westerlies are forced well south (north) of their normal positions. 

3. The northern hemispheric pattern is changing again. The westerlies are progressing east and the block is breaking down over the next  6 to 10 days. The Eastern pacific high will redevelop at 140west.  Possible strong insider short wave just before the New Year!


Weather forecast


Partly cloudy Thursday and Friday with a slight chance of snow late Christmas Day.

Just saw the new HPC QPF for the weekend, 1/2 inch QPF through Monday. Strong but negative tilt short wave hitting California. No orographics in play so small storm with 5 to 10 inches Max at this time.  Sunday is the best day for snow but again…no big deal!……

It looks like its going to get cold the last few days of the year and into the next.  Some snowfall possible…..light to moderate amounts. Low end WSW?   the good news is that we have the best snow on earth and from what I hear…the most as well!

One final Comment…. (Editorial)

The Trees in Mammoth are “still loaded” at the top with a lot of very heavy wet/now frozen solid snow. We were lucky in Mammoth in that the strong winds that developed Sunday occurred for a very short time. Still, when they hit the top loaded pine trees, they toppled many and the results were downed power lines and neighborhoods without power for several days. For many, it was dark and cold! 

Currently, the Pine Trees are still loaded with Snow. If we were to get a strong NW slider into Mammoth at this time, high winds and many more toppled trees would occur that would make Sunday’s late afternoon power outage seem like a slight inconvenience in comparison.

The point is…Edison needs to Bury their High Voltage Power lines in strategic areas, at their cost.  It is not just an inconvenience to us residents, but an expense that is not covered by our local insurance companies, unless it is in the several $1,000s (deductible) for Food Spoilage/other accommodation costs.

Please call Edison and ask them to bury there high voltage power lines in the Town of Mammoth!



Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-) 










——————————————————————————–
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.