Some Changes In The Longer Range Charts Today
Sunday January 2, 2011
Posted at 12:50 pm by Howard
Some really good news and the Dweebs hope that the trend holds as we do not need any more snow here in the high country for now. Just had a peak at the 12z operational ECMWF.
Beyond the current storm that is ongoing….The last two operational runs of the ECMWF have done some back peddling on the potential wet pattern that looked to develop just before the 10th of January. Although the Greenland Block still develops later this week and high latitude blocking is still forecasted to occur over the Bering Sea…the upper high now becomes cut off over AK by the 10th of Jan, instead of remaining a full latitude Rex Block as the ECMWF showed during the earlier runs a few days ago. Although there is still the possibility of a wet over running storm around the 10th…the pattern does not look nearly as concerning as it did a few days ago during my earlier outlook. The fact that the upper high become cut off over AK with no support to its south and with a subtropical low in the mid latts…. tells me that the pattern will want to ridge up now over the eastern pacific. We may still have a period of over running from the subtropical system from north of Hawaii for a time around the 10th…..stay tuned! Remember this is not all set in stone and there is plenty of time for the models to adjust either way as the Ensembles still lean toward a Ca wet pattern.
What the ECMWF is now showing is a cross polar flow down into the country’s mid section along 100w -40N, that will in effect, empty the polar regions reservoir of Arctic air for a time, sending brutal cold down through our countrys midwest 8 to 10 days away.
Again…..with all the above said…the ECMWF ensembles still look on the wet side from the 10th on.
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