Mid Latitude System Lurking Toward The Middle of Next Week!
Wednesday January 5, 2011
Posted at 11:19 am by Howard
Just a quick update for the longer range……..
Both the 12z GFS and the 00z Wednesday ECMWF have a subtropical system coming into northern and Central Ca about Tuesday. The GFS has it a little earlier with the main punch further north. The ECMWF has a good part of it effecting Central Ca. This is a fairly warm system with high snow levels about 8000 to 9000 feet. The EC is pretty wet with it Tuesday night/Wednesday a week away. It may be warm advection precip.
This system is currently approaching north of Kauai and is part of the pattern of concern that the Dweebs discussed over the weekend. The fact of the matter is….The Greenland block is still going to force a pattern change over the next week with the ultimate result a cut off upper high over Western AK and an upper low to the south of it, north of the Hawaiian Islands. There is short wave activity that will come out of the westerlies associated with the big vortex north of Korea. By this Saturday afternoon, the ECMWF has a closed anticyclone centered over the Aleutians with a Subtropical closed low directly south/north of Hawaii at 30 N. This completes sort of a REX block with two distinct streams with the split between Hawaii and the dateline.
By Sunday night, the remains of the Greenland block merges with the cutoff high over AK, while a strong short wave coming out of the Asian/Siberian Vortex boots the current closed low north of Hawaii toward California. The short wave thus replaces the current system north of Hawaii as it too becomes cut off. The big question arises on whether or not the subtropical system makes it into California, as it has to fight a subtropical ridge between the mainland and Hawaii. The ECMWF has a pretty wet storm for California Tuesday the 11th of January with 90% HR at 700MB.
As a Note: The GFS is not nearly as wet.
There will be subsequent short waves coming out of that mid latitude weakness north of Hawaii later next week. However, the cut off upper high is supposed to retrograde, thus allowing heights build over the Eastern Pacific again, pushing the moisture further north……….stay tuned. The Dweebs got you covered!
Please no 12 foot Rumors…..It is too soon….
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.