Looks Like A Week Of Nuisance Weather…Then MJO rising next week…..possible stormy period the end of January into the first week of February.
Tuesday January 11, 2011
Posted at 8:55 am by Howard
A strengthening upper jet into the pacific northwest brought light warm advection snowfall to the eastern sierra this morning. About an inch has fallen on Mammoth Mt and a dusting in town. Expect another inch or so to fall throughout the day today and tonight. In that heights will be gradually rise this week, we can expect warmer temperatures. Highs in Mammoth in the mid 30s today then low 40s Wednesday and Thursday followed by upper 40s over the weekend and approaching 50 by Sunday/Monday. This is setting the stage for a possible January thaw.
Precipitation will be very light all week with periods of gusty winds mostly confined to the upper elevations……hence “Nuisance Weather”!
Yes…there is confirmation now that we have a strengthening MJO.
Note: The location within the graph of the MJO is on the border between phase space 5 and 6. It is possibly 1 to 2 standard deviations of normal. The number 10 represents the day of the month which is currently January. The further the distance between the center of the chart to the outer end the stronger the MJO.
Now look at the Dynamic Model MJO Forecasts:
One can see that the GFS forecasting system is forecasting quite an impressive MJO.
And just as importantly……
The location of the MJO moves into a very-very favorable teleconnected area, Phases (7 and 8 ) (El Nino Like). Historically, this area has teleconnected well with strong west coast storms, including but not limited to the dreaded Pineapple Connection. Although it is still to early to make forecasts and the fantasy charts of the GFS has of yet, not picked up on any significant amplitude. They do have quite the strengthening lower latitude upper jet beginning to extend eastward north of Hawaii toward the west coast by the 21st.
Again..the dynamic MJO forecasts indicate a strengthing signel during the upcoming week with eastward propagation through the end of next week. Most importantly….the “Enhansed Convective Phase” is forecast to be entering the western hemisphere about the 25th of January. This may set the stage for a possible stormy period for the west coast toward the end of January and into the first week of February.
Stay tuned WX Dweebs……It may get quite fun!
A comment from the Climatic Prediction Center:
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR THE WEEK-TWO PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT MJO EVENT WHICH IS STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY GFS FORECASTS. THE PHASE OF THE MJO IS FORECAST TO BE IN A REGION OF CRITICAL TELECONNECTIONS TO THE CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME, IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO FACTOR ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE FORECAST WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE, OTHER THAN TO REDUCE CERTAINTY.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.