JANUARY THAW CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY……CHILLY INSIDE SLIDER STILL IN THE CARDS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK….UPPER LEVEL WEST COAST RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
Friday January 14, 2011
Posted at 8:52 am by Howard
A 17 foot base on the upper mountain, fair weather, very light breezes, with highs well into the 40s…..it does not get much better then that in January!
No surprises this morning. Strengthening upper ridge off shore….the remains of a great basin slider exiting through the desert southwest. Highs today with light breezes will be in the upper 40s in town with temps 5 to 10 degrees cooler up on the hill. Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s.
The next short wave to come through the upper ridge with be Sunday with an increase of Sierra Crest wind. (50-60MPH)
Heights to continue rising as the upper ridge snuggles up to the Ca. coast this weekend. Low 50s are expected Sunday and MLK-JR Day Monday. Lows in the 20s and 30s.
The next change in the pattern comes Wednesday/Thurs. Looking at the determanistic EC and GFS….the EC is sharper with the upper ridge as it retrogrades toward 135 west. The GFS is not as sharp. The differences will be reflected mostly in wind and amount of cooling.
Reading through the lines of the CPC discussion Thursday, it’s apparent that they do not like the “Set-Up” of the High Lat’s as far as where the anomalies are that would support an MJO enhanced west coast storm event. They also sight the moderate to strong La Nina Conditions that tend to weaken the MJO as it moves over the colder then normal waters of the eastern portions of the western and central pacific. However, with that said, the Dynamical Model MJO Forecasts were again insistent that a strong MJO in the critically teleconnected area, could effect the west coast with the beginnings of storminess around the end of this month but with the more likely event in early February. The eastward movement has slowed by a few days from earlier forecasts, and so the timing would tend to be pushed back a bit. The next 5 days or so will be important I believe.
Once again…..this will be an interesting scenario to follow for those that have interest in the interseasonal aspects of forecasting. (Beyond week 2 and outside the time frames of the (GFS Fantasy Charts)
Currently the GFS does have an eastward migrating lower latitude upper jet toward the west coast over the next 10 days. The pattern is pretty much zonal across much of the pacific. Watching and waiting for Amplification!
For some basic concepts of (AAM) Atmospheric Angular Momentum see the link below:
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.