Cooler today with decreasing winds over the crest…..milder Friday then next inter mountain slider Saturday to bring more upper elevation wind and cooling….The strong MJO no help in changing current pattern so far….
Thursday January 20, 2011
Posted at 9:17 am by Howard
The weather the remainder of this week will remain fair with temperatures Thursday a bit below normal….then warming to a bit above normal tomorrow…then cooler again. Winds will not be a factor except over the higher elevations where ridge tops will still gust 50 to 60mph.
High latitude blocking is now gone from the picture over Greenland and AK. Now mid latitude blocking is the rule. With the PNA in its positive phase…California weather will remain fair with occasional Santanna”s for Southern Ca and periods of NNE wind for the upper elevations. This pattern is likely to last at least another week or possibly two. The extended maps progress the upper ridge closer to California later next week for above normal temps much like what we experienced Martin Luther King JR Day.
In the coming weeks…the Hudson Bay Low will strengthen as more and more ice and snow forms within that region and then south through the eastern half of the country. The East will be in the Deep Freeze for some time while the west will enjoy a period of excellent weather. The cold surfaces over Central and Eastern Canada south down through the CONUS will likely begin a thermal feed back process that may perpetuate the pattern into February.
Will the AO and NAO become negative again? Probably at some point in February. High latitude blocking can be favorable or unfavorable for California rainfall depending upon where the teleconnecting anomalies set up.
So far….the strong MJO over the western pacific has had no effect in the numerical guidance in setting up a wet pattern for California. This is one of those times that forecasters can say that you can not guarantee that the MJO will always be a pattern changer to wet for the West….although the CPC indicated that signal certainly favors a colder stormer east in its current phase.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
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