No Change In The Current +Phase PNA Pattern Across The Western Hemisphere….Small Feature May Give The Sierra Some Snow Showers Weeks End
Wednesday January 26, 2011
Posted at 8:35 am by Howard
+Phase PNA all the way….That is about all that I can say…..Today.
Not a lot of excitement out over the far west. The little feature coming in Saturday night into Sunday would be regarded as nuisance weather a few weeks ago. Today it is big news, as if it comes in like like last nights 06z GFS and this mornings 12z ….it might bring in some snow showers Sunday afternoon and night……Wow! However, the ECMWF model has it well east of here. Officially, there is nothing in the forecast from NWS precip wise for this weekend.
High temps in the Town of Mammoth will be the low to mid 50s through Friday, then mid 40s Saturday and then upper 30s to low 40s Sunday and Monday. Over night low will remain in the 20s until the end of the week when they will cool to the teens into Monday. Sierra Crest winds will be pretty light after today/Ngt until the weekend.
Unfortunately, the current pattern is really entrenched with a very cold and deep Hudson Bay Low well anchored and effecting the eastern CONUS with the other anchoring upper low south of the Bering Sea. This may end up being one of the coldest eastern winters since the mid 70s!
When will winter come back? Well….its hard to say when. However, it will come back. The second half of February is a good guess. A better guess is March when the Sun is higher in the sky which will eventually break up the thermal anchoring Hudson Bay Upper Low.
We’ve been here before….
The good news is that the Sierra still has a tremendous snow pack!
Interesting recent note from Jan Null past lead forecaster from WSFO SFO:
“Second, through the end of December, San Francisco had 11.65 inches of rain. Looking at the long term history for San Francisco, this would be the 36th wettest first 6 months of the rainfall season. What has happened in the past with these wet starts?”
There have been 40 years when the July through December rainfall in San Francisco was at least 11.00 inches. Of these only 6 ended up with below the 160-year seasonal average of 21.89 inches.
The Dweebs Comment:
So there is still a lot of good odds that this winter will come back or…….about a 15% chance that it will be dryer then normal….(for the bay Area)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.