Weak Little Upper Low Getting Nice Kick From Upstream System Near Dateline….Longer Range Models Are Suggesting Change!
Friday January 28, 2011
Posted at 9:42 am by Howard
All short term models this morning are continuing the trend of a nice little system bringing light amounts of snowfall to the Eastern Sierra Sunday. QPF was boosted by CRFC to between .5 and .6 between Huntington Lake and Yosemite for Sunday. That’s probably good for 6 to 8 inches over the Crest and 3 to 5 inches in Town. The system is slowing down and so although Snow may begin falling as early as Saturday night, it is more likely Sunday morning. The upper ridge behind the small upper low will Amp along 135west and allow another short wave to drop down the west coast from Washington State. The new 12z GFS has the front left exit region of an 110knot upper jet approaching Mono County Monday morning and so although not in the forecast at the moment…some possibility of some snow showers may redevelop later Monday morning or pm.
Thereafter, there appears to be an Arctic front that will back door us Tuesday/Wednesday. Its a cold bugger too with 500mb-1000mb thickness of 522dm along the Mono County Border Wednesday morning! If this verifies….There will likely be some snow coming off Nevada NE to SW. (Up-slope) I do not believe the the models have a real good handle on it all yet. The main message here is that slow retrogression is occurring the first week of February and stronger amplification with further retrogression is in the models the second week of February.
The Hemispheric Pattern Is Looking to Change!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.