Upper level winds on the increase this morning as short wave passes to the north……warmer today with increasing high level moisture Sunday afternoon
Saturday February 12, 2011
Posted at 8:58 am by Howard
The high country is getting ready for a return to Winter after a very long dry spell. As the Eastern pacific long wave ridge returns to the central pacific, a deepening long wave trof will progress toward California early next week with the upper jet eventually digging as far south as Northern Baja, MX. The first system will juice up our air mass Monday into Tuesday before a vigorous Cold front swings in from the west. At this time, it appears that all the ingredients are in order….. including strong orographics, deep moisture and strong UVM Wednesday to produce quite a winter storm. Although precipitation will begin as snow Monday, it will be too warm to stick in town. Once the 1st short of energy comes through about Midnight….temps will fall with a better chance for some light accumulation on Tuesday. By Tuesday night the tempo will pick up with moderate snowfall a possibility then heavy snow likely Wednesday and a good part of Wednesday night. This is because that although the cold polar front is expected to come through during the afternoon, several trailing vort maxes along with the upper flow natural to the Sierra should keep an active pattern going into the night. It looks like a good 3 feet possible on the plot by Thursday AM with the possibly of more snow over the Crest. Currently…HPC is forecasting about 3.00 inches over our area by Thursday AM. Considering how cold the storm is in back of the front with several inches of snow falling post frontal….we should easily get 3 feet plus by Thursday AM. The Dweebs will be updating the QPF on a daily bases…
Thereafter…..another system may effect the Sierra by Friday, however the upper jet by then favors more Southern California then Mammoth Lakes. It may be that we will just be an a cold showery pattern.
One more Notation:
There will be a potential period of strong and possibly damaging winds in some of the valley locations including Crowley between Monday and Tuesday. More on the strong wind possibility’s in a later discussion Sunday as more information arrives from the National Weather Service.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.