Main focus for the short term is on the winds the next few days…then heavy snow on Wednesday/Ngt
Sunday February 13, 2011
Posted at 11:36 am by Howard
FOR MONO COUNTY:
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER WEATHER SERVICE:
329 PM PST SUN FEB 13 2011
…HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND
WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY
TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY.
* TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND RIDGE
GUSTS UP TO 120 MPH.
* IMPACTS: STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
…ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 395. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SHOULD BE
BROUGHT INSIDE OR SECURED BEFORE THE EVENT BEGINS. LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR
Dweebs Discussion from this morning…..
Big WX changes still in the cards for Mono County as the mild weather pattern of the past several weeks gives way to a much colder and active pattern. The first concerns for the weatherman will be the winds that will be increasing throughout the day Monday buffeting Mono County. There is the possibility of damaging winds by Monday night into Tuesday morning for areas along the 395 corridor. At the moment, there is a high wind watch for those areas.
So for Monday, winds will increase mainly along the ridges. 700mb winds on this mornings GFS indicated 40 to 50 knots from the SW, so 80 to 100mph winds over the crest is possible. Further increase in speeds is possible Monday night into Tuesday Am with 700mb winds about 60Knots.
Bufkit profiles from Penn State incorporating Skewt is showing a critical layer at 10,000 feet which will provide the mechanism for a Mono County down-slope event that should peak here in the Mammoth area Tuesday morning, however, winds will remain strong all day Tuesday. Although strong winds are not uncommon up on Mammoth Mountain, strong down sloping winds across highway 395 into residential areas such as Crowley Lake , Aspen Springs Ranch north to Walker are much less common….occuring just a couple of times a year. Westerly Wind gusts 60 to 80 MPH are possible Monday night through Tuesday Night in the “most wind prone areas”.
CRFC indicated just a few hundreds Monday near Yosemite with the freezing level at 7500feet. Then .28 Tuesday with the freezing level at 7300. So Mammoth Mountain may get a few inches of Snow Tuesday, nothing for the town of significance.
It will not be until Wednesday for the Moderate to Heavy snowfall. The cold front will probably come through early afternoon. Snowfall rates will increase to 2 to 3 inches per hour during the afternoon. HPC has a 2.84 bulls-eye near Yosemite for the 48 hours period between 4:00am Wednesday and 4:00am Friday. Although it appears that the lions share of precipitation of this storm will be up in Northern California, Mammoth Mountain could pick up as much as 3 feet by Thursday. The snow will be Cold and Powdery from Wednesday afternoon through the following several days. Ratios will begin about 10:1 then increase to 15:1 to as high as 20:1 by Wednesday night.
The outlook still looks unsettled with cold showery snowfall into the next weekend. The Dweebs will continue to fine tune the details as we get closer in time. There are more storms that will effect the central west coast in the next week to 10 days. The focus of those systems are in question at this time.
Pacific Energy Update:
Looking at the latest western pacific cyclogenisis starting the timing when the leading cyclonically curved isobar crosses 150E. The following timing is as per (96 hr) Hovmoller from Canadian and GFS north pacific sfc progs.
00z 12th- 00z 16th Tues PM
00z 15th- 00z 19th Fri PM
12z 18th- 12 22nd Tues AM
00z 21st- 00z 25th Thu PM
This timing is for amplification energy and not for moisture timing which can be caused by warm advection overrunning ahead of the dynamic forcing. In most cases the Hovmoller timing is more in line with the PVA or cold front timing.
PS thanks Tom…….Hope your having a good time on the east coast…….:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.