Archive for March, 2011

Last in the series of powerhouse systems to move into the Sierra this afternoon followed by a moderate system Saturday PM and a small system Sunday PM…..pattern to become dryer next week and warmer into April

It continues to appear that we will break a 40+ year record for snowfall by weeks end as the last three storms of March dump more snow upon Mammoth Mt.  By mid week…..April certainly looks much kinder with some very nice periods of warn weather expected!

As of this morning, Mammoth Mt reported 555.5 inches of snow this season. The prospects for another 4 to 5 feet by Sunday night look pretty good at this point. So the possibility of hitting 600 inches is still in the cards! For the record, we have never had a 600 inch snow year on Mammoth Mountain. Earlier reports were revised downward. Unfortunately, records were not kept for the great winters of 1969 or the fab year of 1952.

The difference between this storm and the one over the weekend is that the weekend storm had little in the way of orographics, this one has plenty. However, what the weekend storm lacked in orographics because of southerly flow, it made up in moisture and UVM.  Records show that 5 to 8 feet dumped upon Mammoth Mt. last weekend. And…..another between 2 and 3 feet fell yesterday! 

Discussion:

New 12z WRF keeps the upper jet over Central Ca through the weekend, currently west to east with 110knot nose at 300mb pointed at Mammoth/ 18z today. Thus good orographics are expected with the next two storms. Today’s storm has been strengthening the past 6 to 8 hours with an active band of precipitation within the front now approaching the Bay area.  Latest wave loop at 1600z shows a compact convective cold pool with open cellular Cu west of the Northern Ca coast at about 124west 41north. A nice jet streak stretches from beneath the upper center approaching the Monterrey Bay. This feature will be enhancing snowfall rates later today and tonight. Strong low level winds at 925MB are progged to reach 35 to 45 knots causing orographic lift, forcing”Very Heavy” snowfall rates between 5:00pm this afternoon and 11:00pm tonight. Snow fall rates should diminish rapidly after 10z Friday….post frontal.

Looks like 3 to 4 feet over Mammoth Mt and about 2 feet in town by 12:00 noon Friday. Saturday/Ngts storm is a quick mover and a bit dryer. At the moment…..3 to 6 inches is expected in town and 6 to 12 up on the hill at this time. Then there is one last system just showing up in the models now for Sunday PM.

The new 12z Thursday GFS has a windy showery northwest slider Sunday afternoon/ngt. I do not expect a lot of snow from that system, but certainly, there is a possibility of 1-3 inches of powder in town and 3 to 6 over the crest by Early Monday am.  It looks like a cold….windy….showery system that will be out of here by Monday. Thereafter, we ridge up pretty quickly into mid week for some fab WX!


Outlook:

A strengthing MJO in the Maritime’s is developing rapidly. However, given its location, it will most likely ridge us up for a while giving us a nice break the second half of next week with some warm weather! This is based upon MJO US composites for both Precip and Temps climatically adjusted for this time of the year, and most of all, the MJOs location in phases 4/5.


What the global models show, is initially a dryer-breezy NW flow pattern early next week, then ridging by the middle of next week. (April Fools?)……………………………………………:-) 



The Dweeber



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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

New series of storms to push snowfall seasonal totals toward 600 inches……1st in series in progress!

Weary Mammoth residents ready themselves for another onslaught of snow over the next 5 days. The Dweebs are betting that this current series is going to be the last for the season as far as for the amounts over a 5 day period. IE  the last big 5 day dump. Wishfull thinking?

Sure we will get more snow. However, the Dweebs doubt that it will come in the mass amounts that are expected through next Monday morning.

Reasons?

For one MJO; there is an MJO that is rapidly developing in phase 4 and progressing to phase 5 that will have the effect of building a ridge closer to the west coast next week. The MJO US Composites adjusted for climo for the month of April favors above normal temps and below normal precip in the first week of April or while it transits phase 5 toward 6 then 7.  We should be ridging up real good during the month April!


In the meantime the combination of a strong block over Central Canada and the Hudson Bay low that is set up well east of its normal position has:

1. Allowed a long wave trof to set up just off the west coast

2. Created an excessive wave length coast to coast

.3. The long wave upper ridge is located along 170west with the key height anomaly near 40 north.


Expect about 5 more day of this, before a significant pattern change sets up next week that will be both dryer and warmer.


Expected QPF through Monday AM…..7.00 inches for the crest.  IE 3-4 feet of snow for the town of Mammoth and 6 to 7 feet for the upper mountain by Monday AM.


Well we make the FAB 600 inch market?   It will be close this week!



The Dweeber……………………….:-)





————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Mammoth Mt exceeds 500 inches….next target, the notorious 600 inch winter!

What a winter! The last 3 days dumped another 5 to 8 feet on Mammoth Mountain and over three feet in the Village. Today is a break before three more system try to tally up a 600 hundred inch winter! HPC has a 6.3 inch QPF bulls-eye just west of Mammoth by Sunday morning. 6 inches over the crest at 12:1 ratio is 72 inches. We need about 84 inches so it may take one more storm beyond the weekend.

This mornings 12z WRF 500mb ht has three systems; the first storm is in the moderate class with up to a foot possible near the village by late Wednesday night.  The next system is much stronger and will bring another period of heavy snow beginning about mid afternoon Thursday through Friday mid morning. The following system for Saturday is more of a northwest slider and may not be as potent as either the first or the second. There after, the storm track will shift back to the north during the first week of April with northwest sliders more typical of Spring. Cold….windy, showery systems next week.



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.