Archive for March, 2011

Full On Dump In Process In Mammoth….up to 3 feet already over the Crest and up to another 3 expected by Monday……Mammoth Mt closing in on a 500+ inch winter!!!

Winter apprives just in time for Spring!

Quick update this morning to report that about 18 inches has already fallen near the village at Mammoth with about 3 feet over the crest….the WX front has just cleared the Bay area and will move into the Sierra this afternoon. Another 1.5 is expected in town today and another foot tonight! By Monday morning we will be looking at totals over 3 feet in town and between 5 and 6 feet on Mammoth Mtn!  The winter storm warning will continue through 11:00pm tonight. Highs today near 30. Lows in the teens……

Get ready for another 2 foot plus storm for Wednesday…..and more through the weekend! Then the pattern may go dry the following week! (Beginning sometime during the first week of April)


The Dweeber………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

New Storm to Wallop the Southern and Central Sierra Late tonight and especially Sun/Ngt!

Nice storm last night with amounts between 12 and 24 inches between the Village at Mammoth and the upper mountain. It will becoming windy today ahead of the next powerhouse storm this afternoon that’s biggest effects with be upon the coastal areas of central and especially Southern Ca. Small craft enthusiasts should not even think of going out tonight through Sunday as seas will be up to 18 feet off shore with Storm force winds….up to 64 knots.

Currently the surface system is already deepening offshore and will develop further tonight as it spins up and tracks NE ahead of the parent upper low off the Or/Northern Coast.

The latest 12z GFS has an a deep vortex dropping southward off the northern and Central Ca coast tomorrow morning that will focus a deep surge of moisture into the coastal sections Southern and Central Ca. QPF amounts are expected in the 3 to 5 inch range for the valleys of Southern Ca and up to 9 inches for the south facing mountains. Flash flood watches are hoisted by the NWS along the coastal Mt’s. The Southern Sierra appears to be bulls-eye as better orographics are to the south of Mammoth. However, there will still be plenty of UVM for a good 2.5 to 3 foot plus over the crest by Monday.

The Town of Mammoth near the village will get about 2 feet by Monday morning as well. 1 foot by Sunday evening and another by Monday AM. Winter Storm Watches are in effect for Mammoth beginning tonight through Monday AM.


Outlook:

A series of storms will effect the Sierra through the end of the new week. The next storm is about Wednesday and again about Thursday night/Friday.


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Series of Storms Headed for the High Country……Mini Bomb to Spin up Saturday PM

The Dweebs had some excitement this AM in looking at the new 12z Friday WRF as while the upper 500ht low deepens south at about 130 west, a nice west coast “mini-bomb” develops in the quasi difluent thickness field. The surface low goes from 1004mb late this afternoon at 00z Saturday to 975mb to 00z Monday. (5:00pm Sunday)   That’s a surface hole for you barometer watchers of 28.79!   Yea gotta like that action! 🙂  Of course no one has any instruments out there except a few Buoys/Ships.  That surface system will make for some strong winds just off shore, very rough seas and of course there will be excellent divergence aloft from the upper jet! All this Sunday morning/afternoon. LA should get some excellent rain! 

Overall…..a deepening long wave upper trof will be stationary just off the west coast through the weekend. It will deepen Sunday in response to upper jet energy down its back side. The new GFS this morning has the mean closed center west of North Central Ca late Sunday pm. The Central and Southern Sierra is favored this weekend as Orographics/moisture enhancment look fairly good in that area Sunday. (The flow at 700mb has a bit more southerly bias) The aformentioned surface low will eject northeastward to a position off the north/central Ca coast then kick inland via the Bay area with the mother, upper low Monday.

CRFC QPF:

Up to 1.00 for the crest by sunrise Saturday

Another .7 by sunrise Sunday.  So some 1 to 2 feet over the crest by Sunday AM.

2.00 is forecasted Sunday AM through Monday AM.  So considering Snow to H2O ratios…..2 feet Plus over the crest by Monday AM.

Outlook:

ECMWF and GFS has the active pattern continuing through at least mid week. The GFS has a new surface system moving in Wednesday for another signifacant storm for the Sierra. The ECMWF has the Long Wave “Reloading” Thursday into Friday for another major storm just prior to the next weekend.

Lots of snow coming over the next 5 to 7 days!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)








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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.