Archive for March, 2011

Up to a foot of fresh snow fell on Mammoth Mt yesterday with 6 inches at the village……enjoy the break today…before another system moves in Friday afternoon

A vertically stacked upper low at 500mb was located at 51N 140west this morning due east of a negitive tilted upper ridge. The upper low is progged to become stationary west of the Columbia River at about 130West tomorrow Friday. It then deepens due south along 130West through Sunday afternoon. Several short waves will move though the long wave position into the west coast through the weekend until this main long wave trof is ejected through California Monday. Three significant short waves will effect the Mammoth area this weekend. The first one will kick though mainly after midnight Friday night with about a  9 to 12 hour period of heavy snowfall between about midnight Friday night and 12:00 noon Saturday. One foot plus is possible on Mammoth Mountain as the Snow to H20 ratio will be higher with this system. At least 12:1…. The air mass is not as moist as the last as its source region is maritime polar.

Additional short wave action and UVM will continue snowfall through the afternoon Saturday so that by Sunday AM another 4 to 8 inches is possible over the upper elevations.  SW winds at 925mb to 850 MB of 30 to 35 knots and up to 50 knots at 700mb should favor some heavy precip for the central sierra especially between midnight Friday and 5:00am Saturday.

By Sunday morning, the mother “long wave” begins to eject into California with most of its energy focused upon the southern half of California. LA should get a lot of rain Sunday afternoon and Mammoth should get a lot of snow. At least a couple of feet Sunday/night.


More detail coming later………………………………………:-)






 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Moderate snow falling in Mammoth Lakes at the Moment……up to 6 or 7 inches in town and up to a foot over the upper elevations……

Current Sierra Storm providing some nice snowfall at the moment……with about a foot possible over the upper elevations by this afternoon. The next storm looks quite a bit better for precip later Friday into Saturday morning…… with a few feet expected then…..

The details are coming Thursday morning……..


No additional updates necessary to yesterdays discussion…….



The Dweeber………..:-)



————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

“Series of storms to ride upper jet into California through much of next week”

The well awaited return of the upper jet into Central then Southern Ca will begin Wednesday into Friday. The first of a series of surface systems deepening east of Japan is already occuring and over time will amplify the central pacific upper ridge which allows a series of systems to deepen the long wave trof to a position off the central and southern west coast. Both the 00z Tuesday’s operational  ECMWF and it’s ensembles show and active pattern through much of next week for this area. Even Southern Ca will get beneficial rains next week as the upper jet eventually favors that area.

In the meantime the upper jet still favors Northern Ca today. Considering that were on the anticyclonic side of the jet, plus the usual climatology of March, there will be quite the strong gradient this afternoon and especially tonight as the upper jet begins to slide toward our area. (It will be windy this afternoon and night!)   The jet core will be over us, early Friday morning…then over Southern Ca Friday night. However, the front left exit region apparently does not effect LA until Sunday. That will be the best time for heavier rain in LA if this mornings 12z GFS is correct.

For Mammoth, a moist up-slope flow begins to increase tonight with snow levels above 8000 feet. It will be mainly rain and wind through late tonight. However, the 12z WRF sags the -2.5C iso-hyet at 700mb just north of Mammoth by 11:00pm tonight, so rain should start turning to snow near the village by that time. By Wednesday afternoon the snow level should be about 6500 feet. 

The WX front should be near June Lake at 12z Wednesday and south of Mammoth by 7:00am approached during the early mornings hours…. snow levels will continue falling to about 6500 feet during the day Wednesday. 

I think 2 to 4 inches is possible in town by the afternoon with a bit more above 8000 feet in town. Upper elevations above 10,000 feet may get up to a foot+ of mainly heavy snow.

Thursday’s upper flow is pretty diffluent with short wave ridging. This should make for a decent day before the next storm heads our way Friday. That storm is colder and should bring some 10 to possibly 20 inches with the main punch late in the day Friday into that night. 

The storm door remains open there after with the next system favoring Southern Ca. The New GFS has it rapidly moving into LA mid morning Sunday, then through the afternoon and night. 

Next update Thursday……or sooner of needed. 


Wax-Um Up!!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.