Do Big Sierra Winters End Abruptly?……or do they just fade away……..
Wednesday April 27, 2011
Posted at 10:08 am by Howard
The End Is Near! At least for the great winter of 2011! One last strong cold front in the picture early Friday morning before the weather finally turns warmer then normal next week with good runoff potential. Warmer then normal next week yes! One last cold front? We’ll see! We usually get another system or two in the Spring in May and June….even during La Nina Winters. However, this La Nina was anything but typical! After this week…there should be some big relief from the persistent cold and unsettledness of this season.
In the meantime, our current progressive upper ridge will peak today with temps reaching into the 50s. 58 degrees is our normal high for this time of the year here at the Village at Mammoth with a low of 32 at the same. The climotology now is usually a bit cooler in the lower elevations town at night.
The next system is a windy one with a pretty significant cold pool with the lowest HT500-1000mb thicknesses (520s) in the pacific northwest sliding mainly to the southeast. The right rear upper jet entry region presents a glancing blow to the Mammoth area associated with a Vort center sliding over us Friday…inside slider fashion. So a few snow showers are possible but no big deal. Winds will gust in the 80 MPH range over the crest and 40mph here in town Thursday afternoon and especially during the evening hours pre FROPA. In the systems wake…..some very chilly air to make the fisherman and fisher-woman feel alive. Early Saturday morning at sunrise on the lake and along the shore line, temps will be in the teens! There well may be some light NNE breezes as well Saturday Am so plan on some shelter from that direction just in case. Hot Coffee Anyone? The breezes will diminish in the afternoon.
Outlook Next Week:
At the moment, the teleconnections for the NAO next week is that it going to be somewhat negative, with the PNA becoming more neutral. That is favoring higher heights along the southern and central west coast with warmer weather here. In fact, the weather looks very nice next week with temps some 5 to 8 degrees above normal. (Low to possibly mid 60s). However, last nights 06z run of the GFS had another cold system coming into the west the weekend after this one…..IE Moms Day. For the time being, the Dweebs are Poo-Pooing this system for how far south it digs….until more model runs wash through the ensembles. I think that the most likely scenario is that it will turn windy and cooler around Moms Day with generally a dry system.
Updates this Friday….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.