Archive for May, 2011

Persistant long wave trof over the Eastern Pacific to give long stretch of unsettled weather beginning Saturday through middle of next week

This morning operational GFS was consistent with last nights run of both GFS 00z and ECMWF for another period of cold unsettled weather beginning Saturday into Wednesday of next week. The off shore negative height anomaly is being anchored by a persistent upper height anomaly north of the Hawaiian islands. At the same time there is possibly some feedback with the warm water pool north of the Hawaii islands as well.  In fact, the area between the dateline and 150w is really warming up!

The longer range shows a zonal flow pattern with a pretty strong belt of westerlies across the pacific on the 18th. The upper ridge begins to amp again north of 150w,  the end of the week….and so another period of cooler then normal wx is probably in the cards later.

Expect a few nice days here in Mammoth with highs in the 60s by Friday. Steepening laps rates will allow some thunder later Friday pm followed by an increase of wind Saturday and blustery and windy and cooler Sunday with snowfall in the high country.  Highs will cool back into the lower 40s by Sunday and the return of 20s is expected Sunday night. Next week through mid week looks showery.


The Dweeber……………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Nice break again Mid Week to be followed by more unsettled weather this weekend…The enhanced phase of MJO maybe at work….

This mornings progs, shows a short wave ridge building into Northern Ca tonight with the HT 500 ridge axis over KMMH at 1800z Wednesday. No doubt that Wednesday afternoon will have light winds and significantly warmer temps with the high sun angle of May. It will be warmer on Thursday as well. The Dweebs are noting that there is some directional divergence during the PM as the next trof draws near, no precip noted in the progs for that afternoon through. Temps will peak out Thursday afternoon with highs in the low 60s for Mammoth.

By Friday, Southwest flow will be increasing in advance of the next trof during the afternoon. It will become quite breezy during the afternoon over the crest with stronger winds likely for Saturday. On Saturday the upper ht 500 trof becomes negative tilt. This will eventually tend to break off energy further south into our state, later in the weekend with precipitation a possibility.


Comments:

Not much change in our weather since late April other then the strength of the jet continues to weaken as is usually the case as we continue in time toward Summer. Several earth-science, scientests continue to blame the effects of a long solar hibernation and a continuing lag in the solar ramp up in sunspot activity to the severitiy of our Spring weather. Others blame Global warming. 

Yes, the Sun has been more active this Spring with an increase of sunspots, but it is well below the norm of what is usual.  The Dweebs note that the PDO is still quite negitive with much cooler then normal waters over the Eastern Pacific. This tends to keep trofing over the far west and the eastern pacific. What will be interesting, is to watch the SST anomalies throughout the Summer and Borial Fall. At the moment (pos) SSTs are increasing in the Nino 1 and 2 regions, However for the time being our weather is probably being more influenced by :

1. The continuation of the colder then normal SSTs in the Eastern Pacific.

2. Possibly the Enhanced Phase of MJO. See:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf


The 6 to 10 day outlook keeps below normal temps here in California with above normal chances of precipitation.


Time to get the Sun Dance going!!!


The Dweeber……………………:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.