Stationary Upper Low Getting Ready To Make Its Move East….Get Ready For Some Serious WX…Late Today/Tonight!
Sunday June 5, 2011
Posted at 10:36 am by Howard
All the Guidance points to some exciting weather here in the Southern Mono County area later today through tonight. Although HPC puts the Bulls Eye QPF north of our area The next 24 hours…..The Dweebs can not help to notice that in the 12 hour 12z WRF at 300mb, that a 110knot upper jet is on shore about Paso Robles and pointed torward Mammoth Mountain! Mammoth remains in the front left quad or best area of UVM through 06z tonight. I would imagine that we could see a period of heavy rain and snowfall beginning tonight through early Monday morning. In fact another foot on top of what fell over the crest the past 24 hours is not out of the question!
Ski patrol reported 3 inches of new over the past 24 hours at 9000 feet and up to a foot on top. Could this end up a two foot sierra crest June Dumper?
A storm system this deep this far south along the west coast in the month of June is pretty rare. At the moment, (10:00am) Sunday…the center is about 250 miles WSW of Monterrey Bay about where it has been the past 24 hours.
It appears that the area of best precipitation will be from about Kings Canyon to Yosemite…..or the area directly in the front left exit region of the upper jet. The jet core will drop south to the Sequoia Nat Park this evening so that area will be come under the gun as well. Again the heaviest snowfall will occur just to the north and east of the track of the upper low which will include Mammoth Mt/Lakes tonight!
Although Snow levels will remain above 9000 today…..as Monday morning arrives, the upper center and cold pool will move through Central California as the coldest part of this system moves over head. 1000-500mb thickness lowers 550dm The snow level will lower to about 7000 feet. It is possible that at elevations as low as the “Village at Mammoth”, a couple of inches of snow could be on the ground Monday Morning. Again up to another foot is possible on top of Mammoth Mt by Monday AM.
The upper low kicks east into Nevada during the afternoon Monday. It will be followed by a smaller impulse Tuesday afternoon and so there is chance of some light showers Tuesday as well.
Another system will drop south from British Columbia to Eastern Oregon Wednesday pm then into Northern NV Thursday then east into Utah Friday, bringing Drier weather to the Eastern Sierra along with below normal temps. Although at this time, there is not another major system in the offering….Weak trofing remains over the Far West through next weekend…..and so temps will remain below normal and there is always a possibly of showers with any weak impulse in our vicinity.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.