Archive for June, 2011

Summer Solstice To Arrive With A Bang….Hot Temps Throughout Eastern Ca…..Some Cooling Expected By The Weekend…..

Not much change to the past discussion other than to confirm that the WRF is too high on Thickness values……700mb temps a better gage and GFS the better model as far as surface features.  The High temperature forecast for Mammoth Lakes of 88 degrees is too high for Wednesday. It should be more like 82.

Bishop will get over 100 by Wednesday. Wednesday/Thursday probably 100 to 102 a the airport.


The rest of the discussion from yesterday still holds……………………….



The Dweeber…………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Cooler Father’s Day With Resort Temps in the Low 60s……Big Warm-Up Underway Monday!

New Articles regarding the sunspot cycle worth reading…….

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/14/all-three-of-these-lines-of-research-to-point-to-the-familiar-sunspot-cycle-shutting-down-for-a-while/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/17/easterbrook-on-the-potential-demise-of-sunspots/

http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=5960003&autostart=true


Latest guidance showing stronger height rises early this week with mid summertime temps for the first few days of Summer. New 12z WRF has 1000-500mb thicknesses in the upper 580sDM for highs low 80s in Mammoth and 105 in Bishop by Midweek.  This is probably over done as new 12z GFS showing same thicknesses of about 582DM.  Late Don Marcillien’s thickness study for late June/early July in the Owens Valley showed that a 1000-500mb Thickness of 580-582dm for a few days can yield anywhere from about 101 to 104F at the Bishop Airport. This looks possible by Wednesday or Thursday. The Dweebs will take another look at it Monday AM.


All global models begin to flatten and break down the upper ridge beginning Thursday. The high country like Mammoth/June will experience the beginnings of the cooling first with gusty winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in Mammoth by next weekend may pull back ino the low to mid 70s. By Friday…the cooling will spread into the Owens Valley sending temps back into the mid 90s over the weekend.  Longer range models are at odds with themself’s by the end June. The GFS has a moderate trof and the ECMWF cuts the trof off, well off shore, while an intense ridge builds over California with HT 500 heights over 594DM on the 29th.  The EC is pretty……Roasty-Toasty! 

 

This will be fun to watch how it plays out!………………………

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

 

PS: 

Negative Phase PDO going strong!  Lots of cold H2O along the west coast north of 34N…. 

June Gloomy conditions likely along the Coastal sections of Ca next week. 

Happy Fathers Day! 

The Dweeber……………………………..:-)


————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Nice Pleasent Weekend Shaping Up With Slightly Below Normal Temps…….Big Warm Up 1st Half Of Next Week Followed By Cooler Weekend

New Articles regarding the sunspot cycle worth reading…….

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/14/all-three-of-these-lines-of-research-to-point-to-the-familiar-sunspot-cycle-shutting-down-for-a-while/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/17/easterbrook-on-the-potential-demise-of-sunspots/

http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=5960003&autostart=true


Saturday 19th Morning Update

Northwest upper flow continues with a dry slider coming in tonight for some breezes beginning later this afternoon into mid day Sunday. Today Saturday will actually be warmer with highs in the low 70s, then cooler on Father’s Day With Highs in the mid 60s. Upper ridging will develop Monday through mid week with some of the warmest temps this year if the ECMWF is correct.  Highs in Mammoth 78 to 80 by Wednesday or Thursday…..100 in Bishop Thursday. Then next deepening trof will bring cooler temps into the weekend along with the potential of wind Friday and Saturday a week away.  There seems to be no end to the migratory troughs into the pacific northwest and its effect upon the Sierra. PDO is very negative with a strong warm pool of SSTs north of Hawaii…..and so Summer is looking overall to be average here temperature wise.  Southern Ca coastal sections with their cooler then normal SSTs look June gloomy for sometime.

Update for Friday 17th

A cool NW upper flow pattern will continue through the weekend as an upper level Trofremains centered in the northern inter-mountain west. Expect little temperature change this weekend withhigh temps in the mid-upper 60s  and lows in the low to mid 30s. The NW flow pattern does have a few impulses in it and so there will be at least one weak cool front come through early Sunday morning for some extra breeze Saturday PM into Sunday AM. Father’s Day looks very plesent with a bit of chill for the early Tee-Off at Sierra Star. Possibly some light frost on the greens at daybreak. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 60s Sunday. Happy Fathers Day to all the Dads out there!

Next Weeks Outlook:

An upper ridge will gradually build into California Monday, beginning a significant warm up that will peak the following Wednesday. As a reference, 700MB temps over Mammoth were forecastedby last night 00z GFS to reach about 15C by Wednesday at 5:00pm (00z Thursday). This should be good for a return of the mid to possibly upper 70s here in Mammoth Lakes.  All models begin to break down the upper ridge beginning Thursday as another cool Trof moves into the pacific northwest. Of note, last nights 00z ECMWF was about 60dmdeeper withthis system then the GFS, suggesting strong west breezes Thursday afternoon along with about 6 additional degrees of cooling then the GFS. Just in, the new Fri 12z GFS is showing simularheights falls but delays the bulk of the cooling until Friday/Sat.  It also keeps the breezes going Thursday and especially into Friday. That would bring temps back down into the low 60s by Friday if it verified with a good 15 degrees of cooling total from the predicted mid to upper 70s projected for mid week. Both models are dry for the high country.

As always……..time will tell.



————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.