Archive for July, 2011

Monsoon II Update: Upper high now set up near the 4 corners area with good surge of monsoon moisture over SE Inyo County, moving NNW toward Mono County……

Solar Scientest Geoff Sharps Northern Hemispheric 2012 winter forecast:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/224

Smoothed sunspot chart must remain below 70 for another massive northern hemispheric winter to happen, according to Geoff Sharp.

http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24.png



Everything working out pretty well for Monsoon II.


Friday:


1. At 18z today, the upper level HT 500 low of 584DM is west of Central Baja at about 125 WEST working in tandem with Ht 500 594DM upper high along the NM/CO border, channeling SE Flow into Southeast Ca then becoming SSEerly up Eastern Ca. The upper BAJA low is forecasted to drift northward through the weekend. At 700mb, the upper flow is decisively more Southeasterly. Thunderstorms should begin to develop after 2:00pm today. RENO sounding has a valley trigger temps of 84 degrees today.


2. Current: (8:00am) Radar showing returns over SE Inyo County south into San Bernardino county then east into Nye County, NV. The direction is NNW. The visual showing strong convection with pretty high tops! PWAT over Southern Mono is between .75 now and will increase up to 1.00 by this evening. Some late afternoon thunder possible today.


3. By Saturday; PWAT is up to 1.00 to 1.25 for some wetter thunderstorms over the Sierra. The 300mb Friday 12zWRF has the Right Rear entry region approaching the Sierra for some enhancment as well. Saturdays storms will occur earlier in the day. Slow moving cells may gererate heavy rainfall and there is the possibility of some flash flooding during the afternoon.


4. By Sunday; the pattern should peak with 40 to 50knot right rear entry region of upper Jet at 250mb over the sierra (divergence aloft) along with PWAT of about 1.25+ over the area bringing the possibility of some locally heavy showers in the afternoon and evening hours. Again, Strong storms in the PM may generate heavy rainfall.


5. Drying trend to begin Monday with still a good chance of thunder…then warmer and dryer Tuesday with only a slight chance….then dry and warm Wednesday through the end of the week.

6. Next Week; The longer range models show an amplified upper pattern at high latitudes. A positive Ht 500 anomaly is over Greenland while a negative HT 500 anomaly is over Alaska. This is the signal of the Summertime negative phase Arctic oscillation (AO) and the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This teleconnection favors troffing along the west coast and cooler then normal temps for our Sierra later next week and into the following week.



The Dweeber………….:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Dry Conditions to continue throughout the Eastern Sierra through Thursday with seasonal temps……Monsoon Moisture expected to begin making its way into the high country by about Saturday….

Is the earth getting too hot…..too cold? Too Wet….too Dry? Is it climate change? Check out what has happened through out the past….and you will see its all happened before in Chronology.   http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf


Commentary:

So far it is the Summer of the Northwest Trof….but not surprisingly so…..when there is so much cold water at the surface in the eastern pacific (-PDO), what else would you expect? Even so, with the anomalously chilly seas, SST temps do continue to warm through September, so more warm summer weather is expected well into August. It is interesting to note that while the east coast Aussies down under are clamoring about the huge early winter they have had, it is just as important to mention that the Kiwis have had a very late start to winter. The significant snows over Mt Cook came late this year.  Could the reason be that the warm pool to the East of the island (New Zealand) kept the storms to the south…..?  Could it be the at the chiller then normal temps to the east of Australia had the opposite happen with an early winter.  What does this mean for Mammoth?  Nothing in my estimation!  Incidentally, the water is very cold along the east coast of South America…..Bet they are having one cold wet time…see: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43848242/ns/weather/?ocid=twitter


Some thoughts….

The Dweebs will compare the area of the cold water off the west coast westward, north and south with last winters pool. Will also look at the big positive SSTA north of Hawaii and compare it to last year “next October”. If you remember, last year, the warm pool near Hawaii drifted to the dateline where the mean upper high set up during early winter.  That helped to create storms with longer fetches. At the moment the wavelength would appear to be shorter with what is currently in place, however it is still Summer, so out side of some pondering, it is way to early to be thinking about Winter!  Will also look at ENSO next October and see if we are flipping back to negative ( nino 3.4) or how negative the Nino 3.4 region in the CPC forecasts are expected. Again, I am still waiting for the NHF that should arrive within the next 7 days from a respected scientist.


Current WX:

The weather does not get better then what we currently have in Mammoth.  Highs in the upper 70s nightime lows in the upper 40s and nightime dew points in the 20s. The current slow moving upper trof will clear the area by Wednesday. The dry southwest flow aloft will keep the zyphier going through Tuesday night. Some minor cooling is expected Tuesday.  Heights will begin to rise Wednesday with warmer temps while the Mono Zyphier will be weak.  By the weekend thunder and showers are in the forecast. Models, although different, are quite consistant with themselfs in bringing SSE flow up into the Central Sierra. Although the GFS has only up to about 50% rh at 700mb Saturday/Sunday, the ECMWF has been consistant in bringing a significant easterly wave up through Central Ca with a juice pot of moisture. Like PWAT between 1 and 2 inches and RH in the 70s at 700mb.  This is definetly something to watch as it has been consistant for 5 runs now!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)





————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Will Upper Level Trofing Finish Off The Month of July?……Heat In the Mid West and Troffing In The Far West All Part Of The Same Pattern…..

July 24th Update:


No Changes….. Mammoth will become under the influence of another weak trof the next 48 hours with more afternoon and evening zephyr winds…15 to 30MPH through Monday evening with about 5 degrees of cooling by Tuesday.  The Dweebs still expect southerly flow with warmer temps next weekend with juicing beginning next weekend if currently modeling holds…….

1st long range 2011/2012 northern hemisipheric winter forecast coming soon……. 

Enjoy the Summer!!!!……


From 7-20-11:

Heat And Moisture to Return to the High Country About August 1st……..


With all said about this Summer so far….One thing is for certain,  the Summer has been consistently cooler then normal. Other then a short heat spell around the Fourth of July, the WSW wind has been quite persistent as well as cooler then normal temps. The same for the Midwest with unusually persistent hot weather…….odds are this pattern will continue more often on than off the rest of this month. Of interest is the anomalously chilly SSTAs off the west coast, located 1000 to 1500 miles west of Ca and then south to 10 degrees north.  The warm pool north of Hawaii extends from 30N to 50North westward to the dateline. The Upper ridge north of Hawaii, over the warm water pool coupled with a persistent upper Trof over the cold SSTAs West of California locks in the heat over the mid west…especially when the pattern is amplified. Thus, it is too cool for coastal sections of California, too windy for the high country with cooler then normal temps and too hot over the nations mid section.  This is a similar pattern of last Summer, however the SSTAs were even stronger over the Eastern Pacific due to La Nina.  Although La Nina is dead, the global circulation pattern is still somewhat reflective of La Nina because of The negative PDO the Dweebs believe.  It will be important to track the Cold SSTA off the West Coast as I believe as it will have a direct influence on our upcoming Fall and Winter.  Should a significant amount of that Warm Water north of Hawaii push east to the Ca Coast, we may be in for a long dry Fall! Or, if the current west coast SSTA’s pool remains cold and strengthens, it may very well spell out an early winter and a cold one at that!  So with it being mid to late July, it is too soon to be forecasting an early winter at this point for you anxious skiers and boarders. Rumors of the next winter bringing 500 to 1000 inches of snowfall are unfounded!!!!

The Dweebs believe that the odds are great that we will not have nearly as much snowfall as we did last winter, as ENSO conditions are very much different now.  There is a slight bias that we will flip back to at least a weak La Nina which bias toward more normal amounts of Precip (80% to 120% of normal) with colder then normal temps after a strong La Nina the year before. Remember…..there is more to a winter forecast then La Nina or El Nino.  The AO/NAO and Phase of the PDO are as important…..

An interesting long range outlook is coming out within the next 2 weeks…. I will post it when it is out.


In the short term, the west coast trof will weaken toward the end of the week allowing temps to rise to season norms this weekend (high 70s) and less wind.   However, the new guidance suggest that troughing will again strengthen over the far west for more cooler breezy high country weather early to mid next week.


Highs the next 5 days in Mammoth will range for 75 to 80 with lows at night because of the very dry air mostly in the 40s. Winds will diminish after today Tuesday with lighter zephier breezes.



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)


————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.