Thunderstorm Activity is Expected to Peak Today in the High County…..Warm Dry Weather this Weekend and Beyond……
Wednesday July 6, 2011
Posted at 9:27 am by Howard
Lots of debris clouds this morning on the IR motion with the remains of a pretty interesting MCC that collapsed over Phoenix last night. The outflow and debris clouds still moving northwest into South Eastern Ca…..moisture will track up through our Eastern Sierra today. Skis were clear this morning here in the high country. This will give us more daytime heating than yesterday, setting the stage for rapid vertical growth of thunderstorms for the afternoon. Dew points have ranged for 48 to 51 degrees this morning. Plenty of moisture to work with. Looking at this mornings 12z wrf, there appears to be an impulse tracking northward this morning that will move through the high country this afternoon adding further instability to our morning heating. Mid and upper level winds are light for little storm movement and so locally heavy rain is possible today in several areas below the strongest cells. Expect highs in the mid 70s in Mammoth today
A change in the pattern will occur beginning Thursday. By mid Thursday morning the upper flow will back to the southwest and begin a drying trend. Scattered thunderstorms will occur earlier in the afternoon….then possibly move off the sierra eastward as the Mono Zephyr kicks in. Temps will be a bit warmer. By Friday we should have dried out enough to remove Thunder from the most western potions of the county. We will be back to our usual dry weather with the Mono Zephyr picking up each afternoon and confining convection to the usual areas associated with the Mono County convergence zone which often times stretches from the Bodie hills south to between the Sherwin Grade to the White Mt’s. Eventually, this zone will jump the whites and set up from about the Weber Res. north of Hawthorn then south through Western NV.
The Climatic effect of the -PDO will possibly come into play as an extended pattern change sets up troffing over or just off the west coast from Washington state then south eventually effecting Southern Ca. This will eventually bring the return of June Gloom weather to the coastal sections of much of California next week. The first in a series of short waves will begin to wash up along the Washington coast tomorrow Thursday. The upper long wave trof then deepens the end of this week increasing the southwest flow over the colder waters off shore. The ht 500 day+8 means show a fairly strong SW flow toward mid month. Furthermore….the HT-500mb, 582dm ISO-height plunges south of Mammoth.
The ECMWF and GFS are pretty similar with this pattern change. However, the new operational ECMWF begens to depart by the 16th by retro-grading the subtropical upper ridge westward again, and the HT 500 588dm Iso Height line north-south, west of 120west.
As a note, both 6 to 10 and the 8 to 14 day means favor the GFS with its trofing scenario and below normal temps along the west coast, week two.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.