Monsoon Moisture pretty much flushed out now as thunderstorm threat in slight chance catogory…..Expect dry & breezier weather next week with cooler then normal temps……
Friday July 8, 2011
Posted at 8:52 am by Howard
It was a nice change this past week as an early summer season monsoon surge brought some nice showers to the region. Mammoth Lakes did not have any excessive heavy rains…only some light showers with about .15 hundreds in the Dweebs rain tip bucket.
Now we are looking at another change in pattern. This will be somewhat similar to the pattern we had during last June with West Coast trofing ruling the weather throughout the State of California. The strengthening trof has already flushed out most of the rich PWAT over the central and northern Sierra. However, dew points are still running in the high 40s and low 50s, an indication that there is enough residual moisture to warrant isolated TSRWs through the weekend in the high country.
Weekend Weather and beyond:
With the trof set up now in the northwest, a short wave will move through today with a short wave ridge following tonight into Saturday. This brief rise in heights along with dryer air will allow the warming of temps to near normal Saturday. Upper 70s in Mammoth and near 100 in Bishop. However, by the early part of next week, amplification will take place and the long wave that will deepened south over California. It will then grow cooler and breezier Tuesday into Wednesday with at least a moderate Zephyr Tuesday afternoon. HT 500 Heights will lower into the low/mid 570s and 500mb-1000mb thicknesses down to about 570DM. That’s good for 30s after midnight and upper 60s/low 70s for highs in Mammoth with breeze. That particular short wave will kick out next Thursday. There is some indication that heights will recover somewhat into the following weekend. That is the weekend of the JAZZ Fest. It looks dry, a bit breezy in the late afternoon with highs in the low to possibly mid 70s.
The latest ENSO advisory has come out from NOAA.
1. ENSO is currently running neutral.
2. That the warming subsurface SSTs are weakening
3. That we are probably headed toward La Nina again for the Winter of 2011/2012
The PDO is still plenty negative and solar activity is anomalously low.
The Dweebs believe that this trend may leed to another good winter/water year for the high country if La Nina intensifies again.
Here is a nice article by Goeff Sharp (solar scientist) on the PDO vs ENSO
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.