Drier Airmass Ends Thunderstorms Threat For The High Country….Seasonal Temps This Weekend Then Cooler Next Week
Saturday July 9, 2011
Posted at 9:03 am by Howard
Monday Noon Update:
New 12z GFS has quite the PWAT plume coming into Southern Ca this Sunday and flooding northward Monday into much of next week. This is so much faster then what it looked like Saturday. This looks like Monsoon II on Steroid’s!
Quick Update Monday Morning…..
No change to this weeks forecast other then to introduce a slight chance of a shower eastern portions Friday. This is associated with the current trof that is descending from the northwest. The cool air may linger now into Friday…….see discussion below:
This is a change to the longer range in retrograding or expending the upper high over the midwest faster with the ECMWF deterministic bringing HT 500 594dm into Eastern Ca Monday a week from today. That would certainly toast us up quicker. However the EC ensemble is not so bullish. The Dweebs point out that both the EC and the GFS are quicker in bringing a return to Monsoon II next week then their earlier runs…… Will keep you all in the loop!………………
Sunday morning 00z and 06z GFS update still showing precipitable water increases the weekend of the 22/23/24th for possible Monsoon part II.
From Saturday AM:
Although Dew Points still fairly high (low 40s)…..PWAT’s now real low over Mono County….Down around .25 to .30…..with increased stability…..the Thunderstorm threat less than 10% now. Expect seasonal temperatures the rest of the weekend with stronger Zephyr winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in Mammoth in the mid to upper 70s today and Sunday with lows in the 40s. The temperature this weekend may be the last of the upper 70s for a week…..
The trofing that has initiated the dryer air mass is expected to deepen next week with lower heights and much cooler temps by mid week. In fact highs will cool well down in the 60s by mid week with stronger Zephyr winds. Nighttime lows will drop into the 30s. The Jazz Fest will begin on a strong breezy note Wednesday but will finish with weekend highs back into the low 70s. The Zephyr will be strong enough for 30 to 40 MPH winds Wednesday afternoon and evening and with the 564DM thickness iso-hyet into the area, Sunrise Thursday morning may be a little frosty on the golf courses. It appears that Thursday will be the coolest day with some moderation in temps back into the low 70s by the weekend.
The two global models suggest that the subtropical continental high will retrograde westward about the 21st for a return more seasonal summer weather. The Dweebs noticed that in the longer range, that PWAT increases again from the SSE the weekend of the 22/23/24th.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.