Cooler Breezy Weather The Word as Longer Range Models See-Saw About When Monsoon II Returns…..
Tuesday July 12, 2011
Posted at 8:45 am by Howard
Cooling continues here in the high country as HT 500 Heights continue to slowly fall. Winds have been mostly in the 15 to 35 MPH range with stronger gusts in the more wind prone areas. The more dynamic portion of the upper trof will arrive Thursday into Friday as the models provide enough dynamics for a few isolated TSRWs. High temperatures Tuesday into Thursday will be in the 60s in Mammoth. The new model runs are a bit slower to move the upper trof out this weekend now. However, HT 500 heights do recover enough over the weekend for a slow warm up. (Saturday and Sunday low to mid 70s)
The more significant change in the Models now is for next week. It is the configuration of the westward expanding upper ridge and the apparent delay of Monsoon II. The configuration of the upper ridge is critical to whether the PWAT plume can move up into the Central Sierra. The latest 00z and 06z runs seem to portray this upper ridge more egg shaped with an axis of the SSE flow next week south of Mammoth…..turning the corner east…..well south of our area. This is a new twist to the longer range models and upper pattern. It is being caused by a stronger pacific northwest trof and its accompanying southwest upper flow.
So for the time being or based upon thre latest guidence, we will get all the warming without a lot of moisture. Sure isolated TSRW will from next week but the true Monsoon Plume will hold off later next week based upon current model trends.
Stay tuned on this one as it would not take a big change to flip back again! If you are planning an extended trip to the back country and plan on climbing higher terrain it would be very important to know the extended weather next week. Based upon Climo….the 3rd and 4th week of July is usually a very active time here in the Eastern Sierra for strong thunderstorms……
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.