Will Upper Level Trofing Finish Off The Month of July?……Heat In the Mid West and Troffing In The Far West All Part Of The Same Pattern…..
Tuesday July 19, 2011
Posted at 8:48 am by Howard
July 24th Update:
No Changes….. Mammoth will become under the influence of another weak trof the next 48 hours with more afternoon and evening zephyr winds…15 to 30MPH through Monday evening with about 5 degrees of cooling by Tuesday. The Dweebs still expect southerly flow with warmer temps next weekend with juicing beginning next weekend if currently modeling holds…….
1st long range 2011/2012 northern hemisipheric winter forecast coming soon…….
Enjoy the Summer!!!!……
Heat And Moisture to Return to the High Country About August 1st……..
With all said about this Summer so far….One thing is for certain, the Summer has been consistently cooler then normal. Other then a short heat spell around the Fourth of July, the WSW wind has been quite persistent as well as cooler then normal temps. The same for the Midwest with unusually persistent hot weather…….odds are this pattern will continue more often on than off the rest of this month. Of interest is the anomalously chilly SSTAs off the west coast, located 1000 to 1500 miles west of Ca and then south to 10 degrees north. The warm pool north of Hawaii extends from 30N to 50North westward to the dateline. The Upper ridge north of Hawaii, over the warm water pool coupled with a persistent upper Trof over the cold SSTAs West of California locks in the heat over the mid west…especially when the pattern is amplified. Thus, it is too cool for coastal sections of California, too windy for the high country with cooler then normal temps and too hot over the nations mid section. This is a similar pattern of last Summer, however the SSTAs were even stronger over the Eastern Pacific due to La Nina. Although La Nina is dead, the global circulation pattern is still somewhat reflective of La Nina because of The negative PDO the Dweebs believe. It will be important to track the Cold SSTA off the West Coast as I believe as it will have a direct influence on our upcoming Fall and Winter. Should a significant amount of that Warm Water north of Hawaii push east to the Ca Coast, we may be in for a long dry Fall! Or, if the current west coast SSTA’s pool remains cold and strengthens, it may very well spell out an early winter and a cold one at that! So with it being mid to late July, it is too soon to be forecasting an early winter at this point for you anxious skiers and boarders. Rumors of the next winter bringing 500 to 1000 inches of snowfall are unfounded!!!!
The Dweebs believe that the odds are great that we will not have nearly as much snowfall as we did last winter, as ENSO conditions are very much different now. There is a slight bias that we will flip back to at least a weak La Nina which bias toward more normal amounts of Precip (80% to 120% of normal) with colder then normal temps after a strong La Nina the year before. Remember…..there is more to a winter forecast then La Nina or El Nino. The AO/NAO and Phase of the PDO are as important…..
An interesting long range outlook is coming out within the next 2 weeks…. I will post it when it is out.
In the short term, the west coast trof will weaken toward the end of the week allowing temps to rise to season norms this weekend (high 70s) and less wind. However, the new guidance suggest that troughing will again strengthen over the far west for more cooler breezy high country weather early to mid next week.
Highs the next 5 days in Mammoth will range for 75 to 80 with lows at night because of the very dry air mostly in the 40s. Winds will diminish after today Tuesday with lighter zephier breezes.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.