Archive for July, 2011

Monsoon Moisture pretty much flushed out now as thunderstorm threat in slight chance catogory…..Expect dry & breezier weather next week with cooler then normal temps……

It was a nice change this past week as an early summer season monsoon surge brought some nice showers to the region. Mammoth Lakes did not have any excessive heavy rains…only some light showers with about .15 hundreds in the Dweebs rain tip bucket.

Now we are looking at another change in pattern. This will be somewhat similar to the pattern we had during last June with West Coast trofing ruling the weather throughout the State of California. The strengthening trof has already flushed out most of the rich PWAT over the central and northern Sierra. However, dew points are still running in the high 40s and low 50s, an indication that there is enough residual moisture to warrant isolated TSRWs through the weekend in the high country.

Weekend Weather and beyond:

With the trof set up now in the northwest, a short wave will move through today with a short wave ridge following tonight into Saturday. This brief rise in heights along with dryer air will allow the warming of temps to near normal Saturday. Upper 70s in Mammoth and near 100 in Bishop. However, by the early part of next week, amplification will take place and the long wave that will deepened south over California. It will then grow cooler and breezier Tuesday into Wednesday with at least a moderate Zephyr Tuesday afternoon. HT 500 Heights will lower into the low/mid 570s and 500mb-1000mb thicknesses down to about 570DM. That’s good for 30s after midnight and upper 60s/low 70s for highs in Mammoth with breeze.  That particular short wave will kick out next Thursday. There is some indication that heights will recover somewhat into the following weekend.  That is the weekend of the JAZZ Fest. It looks dry, a bit breezy in the late afternoon with highs in the low to possibly mid 70s.

 

ENSO:

The latest ENSO advisory has come out from NOAA.

It says:

1. ENSO is currently running neutral.

2. That the warming subsurface SSTs are weakening

3. That we are probably headed toward La Nina again for the Winter of 2011/2012

 

Dweeb Comment:

The PDO is still plenty negative and solar activity is anomalously low.

The Dweebs believe that this trend may leed to another good winter/water year for the high country if La Nina intensifies again.

Here is a nice article by Goeff Sharp (solar scientist) on the PDO vs ENSO

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/221

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Thunderstorm Activity is Expected to Peak Today in the High County…..Warm Dry Weather this Weekend and Beyond……

Lots of debris clouds this morning on the IR motion with the remains of a pretty interesting MCC that collapsed over Phoenix last night. The outflow and debris clouds still moving northwest into South Eastern Ca…..moisture will track up through our Eastern Sierra today.  Skis were clear this morning here in the high country. This will give us more daytime heating than yesterday, setting the stage for rapid vertical growth of thunderstorms for the afternoon. Dew points have ranged for 48 to 51 degrees this morning. Plenty of moisture to work with. Looking at this mornings 12z wrf, there appears to be an impulse tracking northward this morning that will move through the high country this afternoon adding further instability to our morning heating.  Mid and upper level winds are light for little storm movement and so locally heavy rain is possible today in several areas below the strongest cells. Expect highs in the mid 70s in Mammoth today

OUTLOOK: 

A change in the pattern will occur beginning Thursday. By mid Thursday morning the upper flow will back to the southwest and begin a drying trend. Scattered thunderstorms will occur earlier in the afternoon….then possibly move off the sierra eastward as the Mono Zephyr kicks in. Temps will be a bit warmer. By Friday we should have dried out enough to remove Thunder from the most western potions of the county. We will be back to our usual dry weather with the Mono Zephyr picking up each afternoon and confining convection to the usual areas associated with the Mono County convergence zone which often times stretches from the Bodie hills south to between the Sherwin Grade to the White Mt’s.  Eventually, this zone will jump the whites and set up from about the Weber Res. north of Hawthorn then south through Western NV.

Longer Range:

The Climatic effect of the -PDO will possibly come into play as an extended pattern change sets up troffing over or just off the west coast from Washington state then south eventually effecting Southern Ca.  This will eventually bring the return of June Gloom weather to the coastal sections of much of California next week. The first in a series of short waves will begin to wash up along the Washington coast tomorrow Thursday. The upper long wave trof then deepens the end of this week increasing the southwest flow over the colder waters off shore. The ht 500 day+8 means show a fairly strong SW flow toward mid month. Furthermore….the HT-500mb, 582dm ISO-height plunges south of Mammoth. 


The ECMWF and GFS are pretty similar with this pattern change. However, the new operational ECMWF begens to depart by the 16th by retro-grading the subtropical upper ridge westward again, and the HT 500 588dm Iso Height line north-south, west of 120west.


As a note, both 6 to 10 and the 8 to 14 day means favor the GFS with its trofing scenario and below normal temps along the west coast, week two.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………:-)



————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Monsoon Moisture will continue to surge northwestward today….better chances for rain today and especially Wednesday….Dryer weather by weekend….

Monsoon surge well under way today with dew points in the low 50 this morning over both Mammoth and Bishop. This means that there is plenty of moisture for the sun to work with within the convective process for rain today. PWAT values were as high as 2.00 over San Diego, closer to the source and so more juicing is expected today into Wednesday for the Eastern Sierra and the winds are SSE.  By Wednesday afternoon, the PWAT plum of 1.25 is expected to reach Central California.  

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms today with areas of locally heavy rain Wednesday PM…. highs today in Mammoth near 80 with upper 70s Wednesday…..it will be hot and humid in Bishop with a chance of thunderstorms the next couple of days…. highs 95 to 100. Lows near 60.


Lows in Mammoth tonight and Wednesday night in the low 50s


The Dweeber……………………:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.