A little cooling the next few days followed by a warm up over the weekend…..The longer range shows above normal temps continuing……
Wednesday August 31, 2011
Posted at 10:06 am by Howard
Quick Update for Thursday:
RE: Change in the SSTA pattern off the west coast “may spell” drier then normal fall.
Regarding the -SST Anomalies in the Eastern Pacific. Although the PDO is still in the Negative mode….
There is decisive SST warming in the mid latitudes off the North West Coast of the CONUS.
“If” the trend continues… Warmer then normal Sea Surface temps would probably spread south as well and make up quite a large area of the far Eastern Pacific. IE Off the California Coast northward. This would have the effect of giving us a rather dry fall with below normal precipitation and above normal temps…..
I understand from a meteorologist I spoke with yesterday, that it takes about 60 days for the upper pattern to adjust to a change in the SST pattern. The Dweebs will be following this trend……
For the loop: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif
The end of August will finish on a breezy note as the bottom of a small trof scoots through the pacific northwest and swings its tail through Mammoth briefly today. As a result, afternoon breezes with kick up into the 30 to 35mph range today and early this evening.
Today’s temps will cool about 3 degrees and another 3 degrees tomorrow. (76/73)
Thereafter….the 00z gfs Wednesday has the western periphery of the HT500 588dm iso-height line moving back briefly into Mammoth later Saturday morning for a quick warm up. Temps over the holiday weekend look to be in the mid to upper 70s once again with night time lows in the 40s. Breezes will be light Thursday through Saturday…..however, there is the nose of 80knot upper jet at 250MB coming into central Ca Sunday, so there may be more SW wind in the afternoon Sunday. Last night model runs also hinted about some moisture spinning off a tropical storm off the coast of Baja by Labor Day. However, for the time being, that moisture should remain well to the south of us. Nevertheless…there is some dynamics in the channeled upper flow over the weekend and so an isolated TSRW may happen over the crest as the thermal trof will be to the west of Mammoth Saturday.
A strong tropical storm in the western pacific “TALAS” well be making its way inland over Japan Friday into Saturday. The storm apparently becomes extra-tropical by Labor Day and pumps up a big ridge about 170East. The down stream amplification deepens an upper level trof north of Hawaii the 1st half of next week. The results over the far western CONUS and California will be strong height rises and ridging. However, the pattern may resemble more of a REX block with an upper high centered over south western Canada and an upper low somewhere between the Great Basin and northern Ca. As a result, our weather should be warmer then normal. However, not as warm as if there was a full latitude upper ridge. So Mammoth should be into the the mid 70s…..with weak westerly flow aloft. The Block will likely break down quickly going to the following weekend with a series of weak short waves there after. Heights should continue to be high enough for temps to continue into the low 70s.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
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