Archive for September, 2011

Cooler showery weather through Saturday…..much cooler……Snow possible Wednesday and Thursday

Just a quick update as the Dweebs will take a brake for a week or so. 

Significant Trof still headed for Ca by mid week with snow in the upper elevations eventually coming into the town later Wednesday.

Temps will cool each day into Thursday. Models this morning backed off a bit showing more of a NW slider…..then 18z run came roaring back wet for the high country.  Snow level by Wednesday night down to 6 or 7K.

At this time it will all depend upon how the upper jet eventually comes through the Central Sierra Wednesday. At the moment the stormlooks pretty good for significant accumulation. Being that this event is some 5 days away and the Dweebs on vacation will let the boys at the NWS have all the fun!!


Next update 10/10/11


Adios!………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Late Summer weather to return for a few days then showers Saturday and possibly Sunday…..MJO moving into Phase Space 6 then 7 may indecate stronger trof later next week for first good dusting and chillier weather…

More diverse weather is expected over the next two weeks as:

1. Strong upper high develops in the short term over the far west bringing warmer then normal temps to the high country, Tuesday through Thursday.

2. An approaching Trof Friday passing through over the weekend combines with residual moisture from Hillery with the result of showers and possible thunder Saturday and possibly Sunday…

3. Warmer weather to follow…however moderate MJO now moving out of the Maritime Continent is expected to progress into the Western Pacific later next week. This is shown by CPC’s dynamic model. The enhanced mode is usually associated by a strong pacific jet carrying moisture and precipitation to the pacific northwest with increased odds of at least some light precipitation to the central and northern sierra along with colder temps mainly week 2 (Dusting of Snow). IE The calender week of October 5th. The wave pattern is usually a long wave Trof over the eastern pacific and ridge over the central US.


The Dweeber……………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Last weeks on again and off again thunder and showers has ended….a approaching cool front flushes remaining moisture out of area…..warmer next week as Ca gets a quick shot of height rises…..chances increase for precipitation next weekend as Hillery moisture flurts with approaching trough…..

It’s a nice early fall day in Mammoth with light breezes and partly cloudy skies. Winds may gust to 40mph by late afternoon as a FROPA occurs during max heating…..  Highs will be in the low to mid 60s Sunday with lows tonight well down into the 30s….some wind protected areas will freeze.  Expect rapid height rises early next week under a building upper ridge to kick start the early week with a warm up. High temps will return to the low to mid 70s…. Lows in the 30s/40s.  The warmest days will be Wednesday and Thursday.

Now for the fun stuff!!!!!!!!

The Dweebs have been following the tropical system Hillery for several days now on how it is being handled by the models. The differences are as usual are between the EC and the GFSX. The EC is drier.

This mornings new 12z GFS run has some short term features that give credence to the longer term. In the short term….The HT 500mb analysis had Hillery at 109east and about 18 North or “about” 500 miles due south of Cabo’s East Cape. There is a small narrow  tropical/subtropical upper ridge that extends from the Mexican Main Land between the TS and the southern tip of Cabo, west to about 136W. Over the next 24 hours, as the current short wave swings through California, a short wave upper ridge follows and effectively pulls the subtropical upper ridge apart. Once split, a Coll forms (upper low) and becomes the dominant steering mechanism beginning Monday night as it changes Hillery’s current course from East to west to one of a more northerly one.  The short wave leaving the Asian east coast tonight will be the one that may pick up the remains of Hillary Friday night drawing it northward over parts of California that weekend.  The combination of the two systems and considering the cold air on the trof might bring the first good dusting to the high country, next  Saturday and Sunday. As usual, we do not have all the models in agreement as of yet, so this is just an outlook and it remains to be seen later in the week, if the EC and GFS put it all together.

As the Dweebs mentioned earlier last week, there is good climo support this time of the year for such an event…..



Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)


————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.