Drier Air Mass over Mammoth Today……It Should Be A Warmer Day…..Then a gradual increase in thunderstorms the 2nd half of this week…
Tuesday September 6, 2011
Posted at 8:40 am by Howard
Thursday: ENSO UPDATE
THE CPC Concedes…….La Nina Returns…….
The new guidance is pretty much in agreement that the weather will warm today and tomorrow due to both additional sunshine and higher heights…temps will be back into the mid 70s…Lows in the 40s.
An interesting development in the upper level HT 500MB maps will increase chances for showers and thunder as we go through the end of this week. Strong amplification out over the pacific will build a pretty good ridge over the west. However, it is a broad ridge with two separate height anomalies…one out over eastern pacific and the other over the Northern Rockies. Because of wave length issues….A weakness will begin to develop over the Great Basin beginning Wednesday. Then within the two positive height anomalies, (Coll) the Dweebs expect it to gradually spin-up into the weekend while at the same-time, retrograde over Ca. This upper low then taps into monsoon moisture over AZ and wraps it westward into Central and Southern Ca. It appears that we could start seeing showers anytime beginning Thursday. As moisture increases within the column and dynamics increase this weekend, chances of measurable precipitation will increase as well. Daytime highs will cool into the 60s by Saturday. Again…..The Dweebs expect, based upon the current guidance, that next weekend will be quite unsettled and cooler.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.