September Surprise…..Upper low developing over Great Basin/Ca this morning to spin up, moisten, then move SW to the coast the next few days…….Showers and Thunder will Begin Mainly Friday, with periods of precipitation Day and Night through the weekend
Thursday September 8, 2011
Posted at 9:21 am by Howard
Mammoth Best Rumor today is the 1,000 the inch winter!
A comment from the Dweebs…..
Anyone that believes in this tale must be in the league of
“Americas most gullible and ignorant!” 🙂
Tricky but fun forecast challenge through the weekend…
I. Current: 9:00am
1. Current Radar showing an area for showers occurring and developing on a line “between” Tonopah, NV and Reno. The showers are moving NE.
2. There is an 80knott upper jet at 250mb NW/SE From the Bay area SE down the San Joaquin Valley.
a. So main divergence aloft is over west central NV…hence where the showers are.
b. Upper jet weakens later the am.
3. Later today…weak area of low pressure at 700mb slides southeast over the southern sierra.
II. Upper low at 700mb is forecasted over Pt Conception at 00z Sat by this AMs 12z gfs while 500mb low is near Monterrey.
The Dweebs still see the development of a coll but have to definitely include some short wave action into the system from the pacific. So a Hybrid of some sort….
What to expect:
Lot of possibilities depending upon where the deformation area sets up and how it will be oriented by Sunday.
For most folks…the fact that these storms will be wet over the weekend and quite possibly occur at night will impact those back packing in the back country, as most folks will believe that after the sun goes down the skis will clear. This will most likely ((not be the case this pattern)). There is the potential that rain and dangerous lighting will occur during the night as well…..Beginning Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday night. This period has the best potential at this time….again depending on where the deformation zone sets up.
There will be areas of heavy rain in some of these storms…..
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.