A Passing Trof to Bring Cooler Weather For Friday…Then a warm-up weeks end into the next…..Roasty-Toasty Pattern Change Coming By the 23rd…..
Friday September 16, 2011
Posted at 9:12 am by Howard
Today Friday will be a party cloudy day… A weak trof moving into California along with the RT rear entry region of the upper jet has produced a few showers over night over the upper elevations of the Sierra. Lower levels were too dry for any rain to reach the ground. Nevertheless, there were plenty of echo returns from radar…. So a few isolated showers along with cooler temps today for the Mammoth area. Expect Highs in the low to mid 60s…then a rather chilly night tonight with some areas getting down into the upper 20s!
The western hemispheric pattern will deamplify over the next few days with the westerlies fairly concentrated to the north from about 45N to 50N degrees. This will bring about some fine weather to the Central Sierra for all your back backing plans through next Thursday. High temps in Mammoth will rise to the low 70s for a good part of next week with the Owens Valley back up to the low 90s. Lows at night in the 30s for the most part although freezing temps will be confined mostly in the upper elevation valleys and not along the Lee because of subsidence.
The current tropical storm over the western pacific near Okinawa, will begin to creep northward about the 21st. As it gets picked up by the subtropical jet, it is forecasted to begin the process of becoming extra tropical and amplifying the down stream pattern. First with the big upper high near 170 East pumping it to 600Dm at HT 500 by the 24th. The down stream long wave upper trof would deepen out of the Aleutians north of the Hawaiian Islands while another Monstrous upper high would build over California and Nevada prior to and into that weekend of the 25th. In fact, last nights 00z 16th GFS run, HT 500 heights climb to a possible record for so late in September to 597dm over Northern NV. Now the Dweebs realize that all this is probably well over done, as staticity, the Standard Deviation is off the chart for HT 500 Heights so high, that late in September.
The screaming message here is that if heights get anywhere near that high….high temperature records over most of the far west and Southern California will fall like flies. The latest 100 degree temps for Bishop occurred the 14th of September 1971. The high temperature records for the weekend of the 24th-25th are in the mid 90s….set back in 1982 and 1986. We may see highs in the 80s in Mammoth that weekend. Stay Tuned>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Saturday Morning Update shows the heat still coming on…however, may not be extensive record heat. Hot Santanna set up for SOCAL by weekend.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.