Archive for September, 2011

One more chance of Showers and Thunder today and into the evening hours Saturday then Breezy and cooler Sunday…..The weather looks dry and warm next week….

Latest RAMSIS showing echos near Death Valley and over west NV as well as some convection over the Central Owens Valley. This seems to be moving Northward.   At the moment, skies are mostly Sunny over Mammoth at 9:30am Saturday. Also of note there are some radar returns over the San Joaquin Valley approaching Fresno. All of this is associated with the weak upper low off the SC coast which will get ejected into California later today.

On Sunday a strong trof for September moves into the the west bringing drier air and strong gusty winds as well as cooler temps.

Expect highs in Mammoth today in the low 70s then mid 60s Sunday. A light frost may occur in Mammoth Monday AM.

For the last week of September it will be Sunny and warm under a pretty toasty upper ridge.  Expect highs in the mid 70s by Tuesday into Thursday or Friday. The next change will be yet another upper trof moving into the west coast about the 2nd of October.  The models are quite a bit different on the handling of the upper trof…..and so more time is needed for the wx forecast for the end of the week.  Hilary is still very much a wild card at this time…..



Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)



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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

The Arrivel Of Fall To Bring More Summer Like Weather with Isolated TSRWS Through Saturday…Then Dry Fall Trof Breezes The High Country Up and Drys it Out….Cool Brezzy Weather Sunday….Warmer WX Next Week

Expect more of the same today for the Resort Levels here in Mammoth Lakes. The warm upper high over the far west will shift east the coming days and give way to an approaching upper trof Saturday night and Sunday.  Summer like convection to continue
Today and Saturday PMs…then Breezy and cooler Sunday and Monday.  500mb-1000mb thickness lowers to 564dm and so expect frost Monday morning in many areas above 7000 feet.

Longer range shows upper high with rising heights Tuesday into Wednesday…..so high temps will climb into the 70s once again here in Mammoth Lakes.


Tropical Storm Hilery will still need to be watched for its moisture play for the SW for the end of the month or early October……..the Jury is still out…..


The Dweeber…………………..:-)




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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Summer comes to an end Thursday as Mid Summer weather continues….Thundershowers possible into Thursday…..Cooler over the weekend with a few showers Sat/Sun…just in time for Octoberfest…….Hilery may effect Baja, Ca into Southern Half of California by October 1st….

The Dweebs are just loven it!

The weather at the moment is nothing short of spectacular!  Strong long wave ridging over the far west will keep temps some 10 degrees above normal through Thursday! Chance of thundershowers will continue as well.  Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 40s…

Friday:

Another weak coll has developed between upper high pressure circulations off shore. This upper low will develop further into the weekend…eventually working in tandem with the upper high over the Great Basin to set up a SE east flow pattern. So once again some moisture advection may combine with daytime heating and some dynamics for a chance of some Thunder or just showers. 

It is starting to get late in the season for the typical monsoon flow from AZ/MX and the convective effects from daytime heating. The shower producing convective type system really winds down as we go into October. More emphasis will go into the dynamic effects of upper air systems later in October.

As ht 500 Hts fall this weekend and more moisture, it will be sensibly cooler..

The next shoe to drop for the weekend will be an approaching short wave from the G of AK. This system is expected to pick up the cut off low and lift it into Ca Sunday for some clouds, possible showers, breeze and cooling. Temps in Mammoth should still be in the 60s

Longer Range:

The Dweebs will be keeping a weary eye on a new developing Tropical Eastern Pac Storm Hilary. The GFS 12z Tuesday’s run showed that for the 28th, Hilery approaching Southern Baja. There is a slight chance that the moisture may be picked up and pulled NNwestward by an approaching short wave Trof from the Gulf of AK. If this does happen it is most likely to effect the desert regions of Southern Ca and AZ/NV. This timing at the moment is about the 1st of October.  Again this is a long way out…but the Dweebs have to say that we are getting to the time of year, that is climatically more favorable for this sort of event. 

The Dweeber……………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.