Warm to Mild Weather to Continue For Mammoth Through the 27th…..
Tuesday October 18, 2011
Posted at 10:55 am by Howard
Just a few thoughts this morning…. The updated 10-18-11 report from the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) shows La Nina intensifying later this year. The State of the Art version “CFS vs. 2” CFS meaning “climate forecast system” is showing a trend of strengthening; see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/images3/nino34Mon.gif in the 40 ensemble members with the data used in the “last 10 day period”. There has been some hype on the net recently using the data and graph from the “Experimental Version” CFS Vs 3 that shows a peak in La Nina more in the February-March time frame that is off the chart! The Dweebs feel that this data is skewed and is not buying into that scenario. NCEP is not even including that data in there latest public release. Take a look at an earliest 10 day run the E1 see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/images1/nino34Mon.gif and you can see quite a difference in the strength of the La Nina 3.4 region forecast from the NCEP even within the cfsv vs2. The Dweebs feel that coming off such a strong La Nina last year, that was a bit stronger then moderate, the odds of another back to back La Nina that would be stronger yet in year 2 would be highly unlikely!
Meteorologically speaking….what the Dweebs will be waiting for is to see if similar high latitude blocking develops over/near Greenland, -NAO style and -AO, as that was a big key to last winters snowfall as well as a strong negitive QBO number.
At the moment….the SSTA field off the west coast continues to show differences as compared to last year at this time. SSTAs have warmed considerably off the west coast to as much as 1.5C above normal as compared to being well below normal this time last year. Also the trend is disturbing as this warm pool has slowly be strengthening the past two months. In winter, large areas of warmer than normal SSTAs are often times associated with higher heights aloft and so that would tend to weaken storms coming into California or split them. (Split Flow).
With all said and considering that La Nina was a lot stronger this time last year and that SSTAs along the west coast north to south were a lot colder, it may be that the real Winter weather will arrive later this year.
The good news is that according to the BoM, ( Australian Bureau of Meteorology) a positive *Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is evolving now and so the Atmospheric response to La Nina is beginning….
*A positive IOD represents warming anomalies to the west of equatorial Indian Ocean relative to the east. It is known to boost a concurrent Indian monsoon, now in the last phase.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.