Archive for October, 2011

Some Upper Jet Enhanced Showers Cruzing Across the Northern Sierra this Morning…..Shower activity is well north of Mammoth….Weather to remain very nice through Tuesday low 70s….

Upper jet at 250mb peaks about 115knots and SW/NE emanating out of upper cutoff. It is is producing a few showers in the front left exit region, offshore the Bay Area. The showers are moving through mainly Alpine County well north of Mammoth. The upper jet is expected to weaken later today and so showers will become more isolated by then. The upper cut off is now getting the boot and will initially build up heights over Ca Monday and Tuesday before coming through as a weak open short wave Wednesday. No precip is expected from this system in the Mammoth area. Just partly cloudy skys and about 10 to 12 degrees of cooling. Wednesday. HT 500 mb heights will rise again above 582dm….into the following weekend, and beyond into the following week. So warmer then normal temps “over all” are expected through most of the rest of October.  The idea for an early Winter (October) is most-likely not going to happen.

Next change:

About the end of October, the fantasy charts continue to bring a pretty strong wave into the west coast. However so far, what the Dweebs see is that the western pacific Long Wave high still remains parked about 1000 miles west of the dateline. So,  “that” waves energy is destined to remain too far to the north to bring Mammoth much more then clouds, winds and cooling. At this time…..With MJO in phases 1 and 2 and with periods of splitting of short wave energy about 140 to 145 west,  the west coast long wave ridge will likely favor the far west insuring more beautiful Indian Summer weather….well into early November…..


The Dweeber………………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Indian Summer Weather to Continue for Quite a While…..Daytime Temps Some +5 to +10 above Normal….

Not much new to chat about….

Upper Anti-Cyclone off the Southern Ca/Northern Baja coast to prevail into Friday with general upper ridging continuing through the weekend. There is a weak subtropical low that will get absorbed by the upper flow and come through So-Cal Saturday bringing some high clouds to Mammoth. The upper cut off out at 140w connects well with the idea of rebuilding the upper ridge over the west coast for the 16th into the 18th….so above normal temps to continue well into the next week. 

A strong short wave approaching 160w on the night of the 16th should be deep enough to dislodge the upper cut off at 140W and lift it through Northern Ca/pacific northwest late on the 18th or 19th. That should bring some breeze, clouds and cooler weather to Mammoth later next week. 

The long wave upper ridge position still remains over the far west and so any approaching short wave should weaken as it moves through the west coast through the end of next week. Overall……warmer then normal temps should continue for the high country UFN……..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Quick Shot of Warm Advection Moisture for the High Country Today followed by strong transitory Upper Anti-Cyclone mid-week for some warm weather……both 00z and 12z Monday’s GFS has energy out of phase coming off Asia later this week into next weekend so Dweebs leaning toward splitting Trof scenario Saturday….for Central Ca….ATM…..

The Dweebs came back yesterday to find lots of snow at Mammoth Weather on the ground…../now back in action this week from a nice vacation……

At the moment we have a warm air advection pattern in process that may bring a few light showers this afternoon into the evening hours. Most of the deep moisture is well to our north so not a big deal. Main idea is for a large but transitory upper high to bring heavy dose of Indian Summer weather to the high country Tuesday through Friday with highs well into the 60s or 70?….before split flow pattern develops into the weekend. Although the ECMWF has a vigorous trof moving into the high country Friday night…..the Dweebs are not buying into this scenario at this time…….as upper flow coming off Asia is out of phase or a bit split by mid week and into the weekend. This will have the effect of weakening the strong upper trof advertised by the ECMWF for Saturday by splitting and cutting it off well off the Ca coast. 

The Weekend outlook at this time looks cooler and breezy than this mid-week with a lot of clouds.   

Strong MJO still working into Western Hemi into Phase 8.  This also is somewhat supportive of a splitting pattern next weekend and beyond. Mjo is being forecasted strongly into phase 1 early next week. Supportive of Western Atlantic hurricane enhancement. 



The Dweeber…………..:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.