Windy….Then Split Flow Pattern……….Heavy Snowfall Not Looking Good Anytime Soon……
Friday November 18, 2011
Posted at 11:26 am by Howard
I believe that it was TV weatherman Bill Keene, back in the 1960s that coined the phrase “A Split Flow is a Weatherman’s Woe”. Well if Bill was alive today, I believe that he certainly would agree upon the developing WX pattern for the State of California. As we go through the end of the month, a series of short waves are trending to split…including the Thanksgiving storm as well now. So again…..The system for Wednesday night/Thursday may split, or it may hang together. If it hangs together….potentially it would be a better snow producing system for the Sierra.
There is another system that has the support of Hovmoller’s Western Pacific Cyclogenesis propagation theory. Based upon that theory, the timing would be early on the 28th Sunday.
In the meantime…..the next system comes down the coast Saturday night/Sunday. The EC is now wetter for Ca with that system, but the GFS is more consistent in being dry. Will take another look at it Saturday. So….some possible wrap around showers Sunday Night…then fair and warmer Monday through Wednesday. Will update this weekend……on the Saturday Ngts system and the Thanksgiving storm.
One things for sure, when you are experiencing a split flow in the 5 days means, the models including the global ones are not much help beyond a few days….
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.