Archive for November, 2011

Snow Continues to Fall in the High Country…..Back of Front Just Moving Through Fresno at 8:30am

5:30pm Update: Well….. all yea had to do was double the QPF and it would have been right on! 🙄

Final Tally: 12 inches at the main Lodge

10 inches at the village

About 16 over the crest.

Not to Shabby for a storm that was supposed to split with Mammoth supposedly getting only a few inches, just a few days ago.

Like the Dweebs have been saying…..this is the Winter of the Humble Pie for the weather forecaster……. the Dreaded Split flow Blues…..

There will be many more blown snowfall forecasts this month and next……Best forecasts will be the ones within 24 to 36 hours….and even some of those will bust!

 

Get ready for more frustration…….as the next splitting system arrives as early as Late Wednesday……

The Dweeber………………………..:-)

Light snow is falling here at the Village at Mammoth. About two inches on the Snow Plot. Mammoth Mt Reported 4 inches at 7:00am and now coming up on 8:40am it looks like the Sesame plot has about 5 inches now.  The back of the active front appears to be moving through Fresno at the moment and so there will probably be another 2 to 4 hours of light to possibly moderate snowfall. That may be enough time for another 2 to 4 inches on Mammoth Mt….It appears that most of the precipitation should be “over-with” by about 12:00pm today with Snow showers continuing through the afternoon and diminishing early this evening. 

The main Vort center and dynamics are moving SE down the coast. The Vort Center will pass mostly south of Mammoth and so part II of the storm will not get into the Central Sierra. 

The new Sunday 12z GFS just in has the next upstream system for Thanksgiving sheering and splitting as it comes onshore. So…..do not get your hopes up too much at this time for a lot of snow.  It may end up a similar situation like the last one…….”that forecasters will not really have a handel on the QPF with any confidence until some 24 to 36 hours before the event”.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)


 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Sunday System is Now Forecasted to Get Much Closer to The Coast……Good News…..4 to 8 inches possible on Mammoth Mtn Sunday…………..

Short term and Global Models are trending further east with the next short wave…..This means that Mammoth Lakes and Mammoth Mountain will get more then just a few showers. CRFC has beefed up the QPF to about .8 for Huntington lake and about .7 for Yosemite.
This means that over the crest…some 6 to 8 inches may fall with 4 to 6 at the main lodge and some 2 to 4 inches in town. This is just an estimate. However….we will be getting more snow then what was earlier forecasted.  Coastal communities will get more as well, with an inch + possible in the coastal mountains Central Ca south into SO-Cal.

This may be the dreaded La Nina Split flow winter, making humble the weatherman who has had it so easy the past several years.

 

The next upstream system is a major storm but the models are splitting it as well. Best Snowfall forecasts will have to be made within 24 to 36 hours of the storm!

 

Now back by Popular Demand “The return of the Split Flow Blues! “Created by the Dweeber”

(Sung to the Tune of My Mighty GTO)

For you younger folks that do not know the tune….have your parents or Grand Parents in their 50s and 60s sing it to you.

 

I got the split flows blues…..yea on on my mind…..

Systems splittin’ off the west coast…. wastin’ all my time….

If it doesn’t snow soon, I’m gonna loose my mind….. yea yea.

These storms are splittin’ up, breaking up….whimpen out….split flow blues….

 

Next Verse:

I’m gonna save all my money……Gonna save my dimes……

I’m gonna catch the next plane….where the powder is fine…..

I Got my DC’s and Super S’s packed…..I’m Dreamin of- the- time….yea yea…

West coast storms are splittin’ up… breaking up…. drying out….. split flow blues.

 

More Later……………..:-)

 

The Dweeber……………………………….:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Windy….Then Split Flow Pattern……….Heavy Snowfall Not Looking Good Anytime Soon……

I believe that it was TV weatherman Bill Keene, back in the 1960s that coined the phrase “A Split Flow is a Weatherman’s Woe”.  Well if Bill was alive today, I believe that he certainly would agree upon the developing WX pattern for the State of California. As we go through the end of the month, a series of short waves are trending to split…including the Thanksgiving storm as well now. So again…..The system for Wednesday night/Thursday may split, or it may hang together. If it hangs together….potentially it would be a better snow producing system for the Sierra. 

There is another system that has the support of Hovmoller’s Western Pacific Cyclogenesis propagation theory.  Based upon that theory, the timing would be early on the 28th Sunday.

In the meantime…..the next system comes down the coast Saturday night/Sunday. The EC is now wetter for Ca with that system, but the GFS is more consistent in being dry. Will take another look at it Saturday. So….some possible wrap around showers Sunday Night…then fair and warmer Monday through Wednesday.   Will update this weekend……on the Saturday Ngts system and the Thanksgiving storm. 

One things for sure, when you are experiencing a split flow in the 5 days means, the models including the global ones are not much help beyond a few days…. 

 

The Dweeber……………:-)

———————————————
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.