Archive for year 2011

Will Upper Level Trofing Finish Off The Month of July?……Heat In the Mid West and Troffing In The Far West All Part Of The Same Pattern…..

July 24th Update:


No Changes….. Mammoth will become under the influence of another weak trof the next 48 hours with more afternoon and evening zephyr winds…15 to 30MPH through Monday evening with about 5 degrees of cooling by Tuesday.  The Dweebs still expect southerly flow with warmer temps next weekend with juicing beginning next weekend if currently modeling holds…….

1st long range 2011/2012 northern hemisipheric winter forecast coming soon……. 

Enjoy the Summer!!!!……


From 7-20-11:

Heat And Moisture to Return to the High Country About August 1st……..


With all said about this Summer so far….One thing is for certain,  the Summer has been consistently cooler then normal. Other then a short heat spell around the Fourth of July, the WSW wind has been quite persistent as well as cooler then normal temps. The same for the Midwest with unusually persistent hot weather…….odds are this pattern will continue more often on than off the rest of this month. Of interest is the anomalously chilly SSTAs off the west coast, located 1000 to 1500 miles west of Ca and then south to 10 degrees north.  The warm pool north of Hawaii extends from 30N to 50North westward to the dateline. The Upper ridge north of Hawaii, over the warm water pool coupled with a persistent upper Trof over the cold SSTAs West of California locks in the heat over the mid west…especially when the pattern is amplified. Thus, it is too cool for coastal sections of California, too windy for the high country with cooler then normal temps and too hot over the nations mid section.  This is a similar pattern of last Summer, however the SSTAs were even stronger over the Eastern Pacific due to La Nina.  Although La Nina is dead, the global circulation pattern is still somewhat reflective of La Nina because of The negative PDO the Dweebs believe.  It will be important to track the Cold SSTA off the West Coast as I believe as it will have a direct influence on our upcoming Fall and Winter.  Should a significant amount of that Warm Water north of Hawaii push east to the Ca Coast, we may be in for a long dry Fall! Or, if the current west coast SSTA’s pool remains cold and strengthens, it may very well spell out an early winter and a cold one at that!  So with it being mid to late July, it is too soon to be forecasting an early winter at this point for you anxious skiers and boarders. Rumors of the next winter bringing 500 to 1000 inches of snowfall are unfounded!!!!

The Dweebs believe that the odds are great that we will not have nearly as much snowfall as we did last winter, as ENSO conditions are very much different now.  There is a slight bias that we will flip back to at least a weak La Nina which bias toward more normal amounts of Precip (80% to 120% of normal) with colder then normal temps after a strong La Nina the year before. Remember…..there is more to a winter forecast then La Nina or El Nino.  The AO/NAO and Phase of the PDO are as important…..

An interesting long range outlook is coming out within the next 2 weeks…. I will post it when it is out.


In the short term, the west coast trof will weaken toward the end of the week allowing temps to rise to season norms this weekend (high 70s) and less wind.   However, the new guidance suggest that troughing will again strengthen over the far west for more cooler breezy high country weather early to mid next week.


Highs the next 5 days in Mammoth will range for 75 to 80 with lows at night because of the very dry air mostly in the 40s. Winds will diminish after today Tuesday with lighter zephier breezes.



Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Temperatures should bottom today Friday then warming to near normal early next week….the period Saturday through Wednesday will be dry.

I hear the folks down in the Owens valley are really enjoying the comfort of the below normal temperatures this Summer. With another day of mid to upper 80s today it should be delightful! Expect slightly warmer temps on Saturday. The high country is a different story….comments like where is our Summer? are more common then not. We welcome warmer then normal temps after a long chilly winter. Temps in Mammoth have been in the upper 60s with highs again today Friday expected in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in some areas in the 30s. There were a few showers that developed near the Yosemite area yesterday afternoon. This was due in part to the upper jet forcing lift over the area. Another day like that today will give the area a slight chance of some thunder in some isolated areas. It is unlikely that Mammoth will experience rainfall.

Some temperature records were broken in the southern San Joaquin Valley yesterday. Bakersfield at 88 degrees broke a high-low maxim temperature of 90 set back in 1966.  This had been the coolest high Max Min For July. 

The weather pattern for the next week will be highlighted by the struggle of the Eastern Pacific Trof and the upper ridge over the mid section of the country. The stationary upper level trof extends SSW from Alberta Canada to off the Southern Ca coast.  A strong upper high over the Oklahoma will become Monsterious the early next week and will build northward in the coming days. Our upper trof off shore continues to feed in cool dry air through Mammoth Pass and favor stronger zephyr winds. With little movement expected the next couple of days little change is expected in our weather.

The next change in the pattern happens as the upper high over the central CONUS strengthens Sunday and expands westward into next week. The big question today is will this ridge be strong enough to dislodge the west coast trof and to provide a warm up for the far west into next week. At the moment the forecast is taking that into consideration and providing up to 10 degrees of warming early next week for the Eastern Sierra. High temps are expected to be back into the mid to upper 70s Monday through Wednesday.  It should be noted that the global circulation is still in La Nina mode and with a negative PDO and all the anomalously cold water over the Eastern pacific reinforcing the current trof, there is some question on high heights will get over the far west and thus how warm it will get.


Long Range:

The long range week 2 still teases us with a return of the 4 corners upper high by month end and some monsoon moisture returning. The Dweebs have doubts about this and will play a wait and see.  Again, La Nina at the moment may not be in the cards SSTA wise in the Nina 3.4 region, however the subsurface SSTA pool that warmed during the spring is now cooling and it probably will not be long before La Nina returns, not only in the current Global Circulation but manifested out over the ENSO 1 to 4 areas during the Fall. La Nina will possibly rule the Winter of 2011/2012 again in some fashion!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

  
  

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Cooler Breezy Weather The Word as Longer Range Models See-Saw About When Monsoon II Returns…..

Cooling continues here in the high country as HT 500 Heights continue to slowly fall. Winds have been mostly in the 15 to 35 MPH range with stronger gusts in the more wind prone areas. The more dynamic portion of the upper trof will arrive Thursday into Friday as the models provide enough dynamics for a few isolated TSRWs. High temperatures Tuesday into Thursday  will be in the 60s in Mammoth. The new model runs are a bit slower to move the upper trof out this weekend now. However, HT 500 heights do recover enough over the weekend for a slow warm up.  (Saturday and Sunday low to mid 70s)

The more significant change in the Models now is for next week.  It is the configuration of the westward expanding upper ridge and the apparent delay of Monsoon II. The configuration of the upper ridge is critical to whether the PWAT plume can move up into the Central Sierra.  The latest 00z and 06z runs seem to portray this upper ridge more egg shaped with an axis of the SSE flow next week south of Mammoth…..turning the corner east…..well south of our area. This is a new twist to the longer range models and upper pattern. It is being caused by a stronger pacific northwest trof and its accompanying southwest upper flow. 

So for the time being or based upon thre latest guidence, we will get all the warming without a lot of moisture. Sure isolated TSRW will from next week but the true Monsoon Plume will hold off later next week based upon current model trends. 


FYI 

Stay tuned on this one as it would not take a big change to flip back again!  If you are planning an extended trip to the back country and plan on climbing higher terrain it would be very important to know the extended weather next week.  Based upon Climo….the 3rd and 4th week of July is usually a very active time here in the Eastern Sierra for strong thunderstorms……



The Dweeber……………………………..:-)



————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.