Archive for January, 2012

Another Extended Period Of Dryness Expected For The Far West…..A possible system about the 1 or 2nd…..A Change in the Pattern Possible the 2nd Week of February

It was a real treat this past week. Some real winter weather for the Dweebs to sink their teeth in. However, now it appears that we are back into a funk with the cold back over AK and anomalous warmth over the far west. The GFS has ridging and a positive phase PNA effecting the far west over the next 6 to 10 days. However, this mornings 12Z Run does pinch off a weak trof around the 1st or 2nd of February.  I do not think that it will be major as the 8 to 14 day charts are dry. However, in that the Europien model has it as well, it is worth watching. 

The climate models do suggest that there may be some under cutting of the westerlies around the 2nd week of February. Between the 7th and the 13th. That would suggest a significant storm.

NAO and AO: The models have been forecasting this big flip to the Negative Phase and outside of a few recent incursions to the slight negative, they are flipping back!  The models have been wrong……Horribly Wrong!!  Whether this winter is being influenced to the dry side by the rapid increase in solar activity since the fall or not. Persistence appears to be the only way to forecast extended or long term WX this year…. And that wet periods here in the far west are likely to occur during periods of signifacant pattern transitions, rather then a real pattern change that lasts more than a week. There is a vulgar winter classification for this kind of pattern…..its called a drought year!

The good news today is that according to Ski Patrol at Mammoth MTN, we no longer can be the driest year since 1976 with 90 inches of snow……as our total is now 106.5 for the season. 

Mammoth Mountain now has the best skiing of the 2011-2012 ski season….be sure to get up and enjoy it!

The forecast this week is for temps rising above normal by mid week with highs in the 50s by Wednesday……some cooling arriving by Friday as a Northwest slider brings some dryer air, some wind and possibly a few showers Friday. High temps will cool to the 40s by Friday into the weekend with lows cooling to the lower 20s over the weekend.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)


 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

32 inches of New at the Main Lodge as of 10:00am….Another 2 to 4 inches Expected Today……30 to 40 inch Prediction Looks Good….

Quick Update to reflect a good storm past 18 Hours…Mammoth Mtn received another 30 to 40 inches on top of 2 to 4 feet from the last storm

Winter Storm Warning will probably be down graded to Snow Advisory rest of the Day….

Storm ending tonight with fair days ahead

Temps recovering back into the low 50s by mid week; Lows in the teens and 20s..

Over the next 6 to 10 days….just a few weak systems that will bring wind…periods of cooling and a slight chance of Snow-showers….

Expect a fair weekend…..

Next pattern change between the Between 5th and the 11th of February.

Between now and then….a whole latta ridging going on…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

More Snow on the Way!……And another 2 to 3 Feet expected by Monday Night…..Winter Storm Warning Hoisted…..Beginning at 7:00PM Tonight…..

32 INCHES OF NEW AT THE MAIN LODGE AT 10:00AM MONDAY

CRFC QPF FORCASTS UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CREST BY MONDAY NIGHT

Another strong 150 knot upper jet is taking aim upon the Sierra for tonight and Monday. The new 12z GFS and NAM has some nice powder headed our way. WSW warnings now hoisted for the period 7:00PM tonight….through 4PM Monday. Expect between 12 and 24 inches for the Town of Mammoth and between 40 inches to 30 inches, from top to bottom on Mammoth Mtn.

The Friday/Saturday storm left between 6 and 10 inches around town with 1.43 inches of water. The Main Lodge received 27 inches and it is estimated that from McCoy Station to the top, 3 to 4 feet.

The next system is colder and should make for some nice light powder at the upper elevations…..

Outlook:

Ridging will once again develop over the Eastern Pacific and cold will dominate parts the Midwest, the Ohio Valley and eventually the East later in the upcoming week.  For California, the upper ridge spells another long term dry spell, beyond the end of January and well into the first week of February…..  High temps will return to the low 50s by Wednesday and remain in the upper 40s to low 50s through the weekend. Night time lows will moderate from the teens back up into the 20s. Next possible stormy period between February 5th and the 11th.

 

The Dweeber…………………..:-)

 


 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.