Archive for January, 2012

Cold Wet Storm Just What The Doc Ordered….18 Inches Of New At Main Lodge….An Estimated 2 to 3 Feet From McCoy Station Up…More Snow On The Way!!!!

With the nose of a 150 knot jet on shore, a power house of a system pushed wind gauges to their max this morning…..gusts were reported to 144mph over the top of Mammoth Mt early this morning. Winds will gradually subside during the day as cold air advection continues. Some 6 to 12 inches has fallen in many of the residential sections of town. More snow is expected through about 10:00am this morning in showers then another inch or two possible this afternoon. Snowfall will end tonight into mid day Sunday. The next system is expected to be colder with QPF of 1.00 to 2.00 expected between 8000 and 11,000 ft. So another 6 to 10 inches in town and some 1 to 2 feet up on Ol Wholly. The storm will begin later Sunday with the peak early Monday morning….. 

Altogether Mammoth MT may very well end up with 3 to 5 feet, over a 5 day period of storminess.  By Tuesday, the storm track will shift north again and it will be time to wax-um up!

 

Expect fair weather by mid-week with highs in the 40s and lows in the teens and twenties.

The Long Range is dry for the time being as the GFS has a ridge at the end of the month and the ECMWF has a strong trof. Time will tell….

 

 

The Dweeber……………………………:-)

 

 

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Wet System For Friday Looking Colder Now With The Possibility That It May Be Snow In The Town Of Mammoth…..

As of 3:50pm Wednesday the Latest Point Forecast from NWS was a snow level of 8700ft then falling rapidly after 10:00pm. So for you guys that are in the plow biz you might want to pay attention to the latest forecasts as I would not be surprised it it did verify a lower as the trend has been cooler the past 24 hours ….It may very well be all snow at the 8000 ft level Friday Afternoon and night. QPF from CRFC is for about 2.00 Friday AM to Sat AM. 12z to 12z.

Next Update Friday Night…..

Just a quick update to let the T.O.M know that the models are coming in a bit cooler now for the Friday afternoon and night Storm. This may be significant for snow instead of a rain event for the Town of Mammoth.  It may end up that the upper elevations of town get significant accumulations from this wet system, that has been advertised as more of a rain event then snow…..

Please check and note the new afternoon forecast package that will be released from the National Weather Service About 3:00pm today.

 

The Dweeber…………………………:-)

From Tuesday:

The Dweebs are all anxious now as the month long wait for the middle of January is here!

I took a look at the new 12Z GFS analysis and noticed:

1. An impressive surface high over the Bering Straits of 1056MB!

2. To the south at about 170W a 981 Surface Low taping a rich pool of PWAT from near the Hawaiian Islands.

3. A nice cyclonically curved upper jet (300MB) well N and W of Hawaiian Islands

4. Very nice confluence of both the polar and subtropical upper jets near and east of the Dateline.

5. Over the next 24 to 36 hours….The current NW upper flow pattern over the North-Central west coast shifts east as strong mid Lat pacific jet noises into Vancouver Island, Canada, early Wednesday Am….then south to Columbia River by late Wednesday afternoon. At the same time, subtropical ridge builds with increasing heights along central west coast. 700MB 0C line (Freezing Level at 10,000ft) rises to and north of Mammoth By Thursday PM. Meanwhile….a strong upper wave at about 145W heads east toward west coast then on shore into late Thursday afternoon as Main Event of PWAT associated with 160Knot upper jet slams Northern Ca Friday Morning then south throughout the day with Copious Moisture. PWAT forecasts up to 1.50 along the Central West Coast.

6. By Friday night….upper wave moves through….rich PWAT pushes south and drier air along with cooler temps moves in….lowering the snow level below 7000 feet after midnight.

7. There will be a few more waves to come through…..colder and dryer snowfall to follow through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

7 Day GFS computer generated QPF has about 4 inches of liquid by Wednesday AM next week storm total. Of course a lot can happen between now and then….IE waves can speed up or slow down in speed……So QPF can very.  A snap shot of the guidance for our area would suggest that considering very wet snow in the beginning and dryer snow at the end this Dweebs best guess at this time is about 5 Feet at 10,000ft and above.  ”First guess” for the Town of Mammoth, @ 8000 ft….up to 24 inches mainly Sunday night into Tuesday Next Week. Will Fine tune later….

8. The pattern is expected to go significantly drier again by Wednesday the 24th as the upper flow shifts more from the north….It will be colder as well. Below normal precip is expected the last week of January.  

9. The experimental Climate models are showing dryer then normal the first week of February then wetter the 2nd week of February.  

 

The Dweeber………………………………:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

It’s Almost Showtime As Moist Subtropical Fetch Heads For The West Coast……

Wednesday Am Update:

Just a quick update to let the T.O.M know that the models are coming in a bit cooler now for the Friday afternoon and night system. This may be significant for snow instead of a rain event for the Town of Mammoth.  It may end up the the upper elevations of town get significant accumulations from this wet system, that has been advertised as more of a rain event then snow…..

From Tuesday:

The Dweebs are all anxious now as the month long wait for the middle of January is here!

I took a look at the new 12Z GFS analysis and noticed:

1. An impressive surface high over the Bering Straits of 1056MB!

2. To the south at about 170W a 981 Surface Low taping a rich pool of PWAT from near the Hawaiian Islands.

3. A nice cyclonically curved upper jet (300MB) well N and W of Hawaiian Islands

4. Very nice confluence of both the polar and subtropical upper jets near and east of the Dateline.

5. Over the next 24 to 36 hours….The current NW upper flow pattern over the North-Central west coast shifts east as strong mid Lat pacific jet noises into Vancouver Island, Canada, early Wednesday Am….then south to Columbia River by late Wednesday afternoon. At the same time, subtropical ridge builds with increasing heights along central west coast. 700MB 0C line (Freezing Level at 10,000ft) rises to and north of Mammoth By Thursday PM. Meanwhile….a strong upper wave at about 145W heads east toward west coast then on shore into late Thursday afternoon as Main Event of PWAT associated with 160Knot upper jet slams Northern Ca Friday Morning then south throughout the day with Copious Moisture. PWAT forecasts up to 1.50 along the Central West Coast.

6. By Friday night….upper wave moves through….rich PWAT pushes south and drier air along with cooler temps moves in….lowering the snow level below 7000 feet after midnight.

7. There will be a few more waves to come through…..colder and dryer snowfall to follow through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

7 Day GFS computer generated QPF has about 4 inches of liquid by Wednesday AM next week storm total. Of course a lot can happen between now and then….IE waves can speed up or slow down in speed……So QPF can very.  A snap shot of the guidance for our area would suggest that considering very wet snow in the beginning and dryer snow at the end this Dweebs best guess at this time is about 5 Feet at 10,000ft and above.  “First guess” for the Town of Mammoth, @ 8000 ft….up to 24 inches mainly Sunday night into Tuesday Next Week. Will Fine tune later….

8. The pattern is expected to go significantly drier again by Wednesday the 24th as the upper flow shifts more from the north….It will be colder as well. Below normal precip is expected the last week of January.  

9. The experimental Climate models are showing dryer then normal the first week of February then wetter the 2nd week of February.  

 

The Dweeber………………………………:-)

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.