Upper Block Firmly in Place with a Weak Under-Cutting Attempt by the Westerlies…..Some Light Snow Possible Tuesday with Majority of Precip Expected along the California Coast South & Westward……Possible Major Change in Pattern Showing Up Very End of February…..
Monday February 6, 2012
Posted at 9:19 am by Howard
Like so many systems this year the next weather system will weaken rapidly as it comes on shore Tuesday. Precip forecast shows about an inch along the immediate coast and lesser amounts inland. The suggestion is that on the west side of the Sierra realitive to Mammoth MT, there may be up to 4 inches of snow with amounts in the 1 to 3 inches range over the area between the Crest and highway 395. Again amounts fall off rapidly as the energy splits and sheers SE off shore. Southern Ca coastal sections may actually do well Tuesday into the evening, especially over the channel islands and Santa Catalina. Beyond the next few days…we ridge up again and that should hold the weather dry through the rest of this week. Both 6 to 10 day as well as 8 to 14 day charts continue the dry trend into the 3rd week of February.
Something to look forward to:
The Air-Sea coupled global models for the 3rd day in a row is showing retrogression of the upper high westward the 2nd half of the last week of February. This mornings run suggests an upper 500Ht anomaly along 150W, negative tilt up through the Aleutians the 7 day period beginning March 1st. The is the 3rd run in a row that the *air-sea coupled model has been retrograding the upper high with above normal precip south through Central Ca, beginning the end of February into early March. The temp graph show -2 deviations below standard so it would be snow to lower elevations. Lets hope for the “Miracle March”!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)
*The Air-Sea coupled model is experimental, and “should not be” relied upon for planning purposes.
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.