Rising Heights…A NW flow aloft and High Clouds The Next Few Days….Warming is Expected the Next Few Days…Then Chilly, Blustery Weekend with Some Snow Showers possible Saturday through Mid Morning…
Tuesday February 21, 2012
Posted at 9:08 am by Howard
Quick update Wednesday the 22nd:
Upper high builds in bringing a warmer day today 50s for highs
Passing short wave brings in brief cooling Thursday with highs in the 40s
then Warming again Friday with highs in the 50s….
NW slider will bring cooler weather over the weekend with breezy weather Saturday and cooling bottoming out Sunday.
Although there may be some Showers Saturday….nothing measurable is expected.
Citing the ESRL short term ensemble at 09Z the 22nd, the best chance for snow showers will be between 4:00am and 7:00am Saturday……Less then (.01) expected
The Dweebs are still expecting retrogression in the long wave upper ridge
Sometime during the first week of March leading to a storm….
Water On Mammoth Pass:
It appears that Mammoth Pass is about 25% of normal for this time of the year. However, still ahead of the driest year on record during the winter of 1977. We would have to be skunked the rest of the Winter/Spring to equal that winter as far as water deficit. That will not happen likely this year….
Over running high clouds will continue as short wave energy navigates the upper ridge off shore into the Pacific Northwest. By the weekend, strong amplification occurs as a NW upper jet cuts into Northern Ca.. This results in cooler breezy weather over the weekend with strong winds over the Sierra Crest. The winds may begin as early as Friday night but increase Saturday
Again…the northwest upper jet cuts diagonally through Northern Ca with the EC deeper…showing the upper jet coming in just to the south of us. This would be a bit better for precipitation. However, at this time the system is not shown to have a lot of moisture with it. So it looks cold windy and unsettled for the weekend.
The outlook shows colder than normal temps as the new week begins with the chance of snow showers…..as the end of February draws to a close. Longer range still shows a pretty good trof during the first week of March.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.