Split System To Combine Offshore To Give The Southern Portion Of California A Nice Shot of Precip…..Better Consolidated Upper Jet Mid-Week………
Sunday February 26, 2012
Posted at 10:24 am by Howard
The stronger of the two Vort centers was located at 40N-131West moving SSE. The 2nd Vt center near Seattle….due to upstream amplification will dive south over the next 12 hours and aid to spin up the upper low. Main point is that both PVA/UVM remains well west of the Eastern Sierra. With RT/Rear entry region favoring southern coastal sections and the Mts of Southern Ca, north to Kern Co. Strongest 500/700mb upper flow is over Southern Ca. Over all the system is not all that moist and outside of the Convective parameters being up a bit as the sun is higher in the sky now, The high country of Southern Mono county will probably not get much more then 2 to 5 inches including the crest. (1 to 3) in town. The Southern Sierra will do a little better with the Northern Sierra pretty much skunked. (A trace to an inch or 2 up there). The system is pretty cold though. Snow levels will lower to 3000 feet to our south. Bishop could see some snow showers….
The next upstream system for Wednesday is stronger. The upper jet is more consolidated.
The Sunday 12z GFS has the nose of 120knott upper jet coming into just north of the Bay Area Tuesday night into Wednesday AM. This definitely favors the Northern Sierra. They will easily see 12 inches plus…especially for the resorts NW of Tahoe along Highway 80…Alpine Meadows and Squaw Valley, as there is more moisture with this system because of the better defined upper jet. However, with this said…..the system also moves pretty quickly east as well. The upper jets Front/Left exit region is still to the north of Mammoth as the Trof swings through Ca. The storm looks windy and so March will roar in like a Lion….. Best guess for Mammoth at the moment…..3 to 6 inches depending upon where exactly the upper jet comes in. (Will take another look at it Monday AM)
With short wave ridging building in Thursday the weather will be fair Thursday and Friday with the following bringing more precip to the north over the pacific northwest.
Dr Howard And the Dweebs……………………………………..:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.