Archive for February, 2012

Rising Heights…A NW flow aloft and High Clouds The Next Few Days….Warming is Expected the Next Few Days…Then Chilly, Blustery Weekend with Some Snow Showers possible Saturday through Mid Morning…

Quick update Wednesday the 22nd:

Upper high builds in bringing a warmer day today  50s for highs

Passing short wave brings in brief cooling Thursday with highs in the 40s

then Warming again Friday with highs in the 50s….

NW slider will bring cooler weather over the weekend with breezy weather Saturday and cooling bottoming out Sunday.

Although there may be some Showers Saturday….nothing measurable is expected.

Citing the ESRL short term ensemble at 09Z the 22nd, the best chance for snow showers will be between 4:00am and 7:00am Saturday……Less then (.01) expected

The Dweebs are still expecting retrogression in the long wave upper ridge

Sometime during the first week of March leading to a storm….

Water On Mammoth Pass:

It appears that Mammoth Pass is about 25% of normal for this time of the year. However, still ahead of the driest year on record during the winter of 1977.  We would have to be skunked the rest of the Winter/Spring to equal that winter as far as water deficit.  That will not happen likely this year….

http://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/cms/ladwp013390.pdf

The Dweeber…………………….:-)

 

 

Over running high clouds will continue as short wave energy navigates the upper ridge off shore into the Pacific Northwest. By the weekend, strong amplification occurs as a NW upper jet cuts into Northern Ca.. This results in cooler breezy weather over the weekend with strong winds over the Sierra Crest. The winds may begin as early as Friday night but increase Saturday

Again…the northwest upper jet cuts diagonally through Northern Ca with the EC deeper…showing the upper jet coming in just to the south of us.  This would be a bit better for precipitation.  However, at this time the system is not shown to have a lot of moisture with it.   So it looks cold windy and unsettled for the weekend.

The outlook shows colder than normal temps as the new week begins with the chance of snow showers…..as the end of February draws to a close. Longer range still shows a pretty good trof during the first week of March.

 

The Dweeber……………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Some Over Running Monday with lots of clouds…..Slight chance of a Few Showers….Fair and Breezy Mid Week with NW Flow Pattern for the Upcoming Week.

Lots of Clouds Monday with a slight chance of some showers.  QPF from CRFC and NMC is zip for our area. Nevertheless…some forecasters think a slight chance is in order. Winds will be light in town….

 

Temps will be in the 30s Monday…. then 40s Tuesday and near 50 Wednesday.  It looks like a dry week ahead….

 

More Later….

 

The Dweeber……….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Weather To Become Unsetteled Today With Snowshowers Developing by Noon and Continuing Through Tonight……Expect Mainly Trace Amounts…..Milder Weather Returning by Midweek…..

 

10:50am Update.

Light band of snow has moved into Northern Mono County. Snow showers should develop before noon here in Mammoth….Expect about an inch by tonight. 

Locals are saying it the best skiing now of the season! If you’ve thrown in the towel on the 2012 winter…your missing out big time……The Dweebs are expecting that the next 4 to 6 weeks will be fabulous as a deepening snow pack continues to improve on the existing base….  

Skies currently clouding up as surface front approaches….A band of light precip is fizzling to the west of Alpine County while the main band approaches Tahoe. Not sure how much will be left by the time it gets down here today…. Cooling and breezy WX is the main theme today with further cooling tomorrow. 

In the back of this system…an upper high aloft will build in across the west. Gradients will increase resulting in off shore flow pattern developing Monday through mid week. This will bring gusty winds to the Sierra Crest beginning Monday that will increase Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will probably be in the 80mph+ class out of the N then eventually out of the NE. An extended period of these winds will create Santanna conditions for Southen Ca. next week. Winds are likely to continue through Thursday.  (Note) The Town of Mammoth and the lower slopes are effected much less from these winds.

Longer Range:

Confidence at this time is increasing for a change in the pattern the last week of February with “MJO Induced Retrogression” of the pattern over the north pacific. The upper jet contracts westward in response to tropical forcing over the Indian Ocean by the end of February as the PNA sign flips from + to -.  Both EC and GFS Global models maybe picking up on this now as they are showing retrogression in the long wave pattern. Today’s 12z operational GFS as well as last nights 00z 7 day means centered on day 11 show retrogression of the Eastern pacific high westward to Hawaiian islands and beyond. See: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f264wbg.gif 

With the support of the MJO now entering Phase Space 2…..the odds for a series of storms that will be beneficial to the Sierra Snow-pack is looking better, beginning about the end of the month into the first week of March.  At this time the NCEPs 8 to 14 day outlook does not show above normal or even average precip for Ca. This may change in the coming days….. 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-) 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.