Upper Ridge Will Yield to Yet another Trof this Weekend….Although the system is slowing…..6 to 10 Inches Could Fall Over The Upper Elevations Sunday PM….More Snow Forecasted Next Week……
Thursday March 22, 2012
Posted at 7:37 am by Howard
Saturday Morning Update:
Not much has changed in the overall forecast for precipitation other than to push back the main snowfall to Sunday night/Monday AM.
The upper trof will split into two centers with the Southern Low Center the one to be respondsible for the majority of Mammoth’s precip as it swings through Southern Ca Sunday into Monday AM. Late Sunday afternoon into early Monday appears to be the best time for snowfall for Mammoth. However, we could start getting some flurries or showers anytime Saturday afternoon into the night. No measurable precipitation is expected until very late Saturday at the earliest. Amounts still look good with somewhare between .5 and 1.0 inches of precip in the form of snowfall….. so between 5 and 10 inches of snow is possible on Mammoth Mountain By Monday PM.
The next upstream system will slow as it approaches California with a lot of its energy dropping south along the Ca coast. Last nights EC was faster opening the upper low into an open Trof then kicking it though Southern Ca about 12 hours faster. The New 12z WRF continues the trend of last night 06z GFS and thus the slower model solutions are probably the ones to follow this morning.
Following the timing of precipitation of the 09z ESRL, 12z Thursday WRF, 12z GFS along with CRFC precip into the Central Sierra, it looks unlikely that much will fall if any in the Town of Mammoth until beginning mid-morning Sunday or even holding off until Sunday afternoon with the main amounts Sunday evening/night.
For the most part….this is a Monday Morning Plow for the town…..
Additionally, the low becomes more North/South orientated. Thus the upper flow responds from the South to even SSE. Not a good direction for a lot of snowfall here in the Eastern Sierra. So were probably looking at a system that will bring 3 to 5 inches at the village and 6 to possibly up to 8 inches over the upper elevations by Sunday night. The Dweebs will update the QPF if it changes either way tomorrow AM. With this type of system….any slight change in the behavior of the closed low will effect the outcome of snowfall. At this time…..Most of the snowfall will occur Sunday morning into Sunday night.
Los Angeles could do quite well along the coastal sections with well over an inch of rain in many areas. It appears that the trof will open as a negative tilt system which could be quite dynamic for Southern Ca.
The southern branch of the jet stream will continue to be active into the Central and Northern Sierra. Another trof will bring more snowfall by about mid-week. The early part of the week looks unsettled as well with the chance of snow-showers as westerly flow continues….
Update Sat AM>>>>>
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.