Archive for March, 2012

Upper Ridge Will Yield to Yet another Trof this Weekend….Although the system is slowing…..6 to 10 Inches Could Fall Over The Upper Elevations Sunday PM….More Snow Forecasted Next Week……

Saturday Morning Update:

Not much has changed in the overall forecast for precipitation other than to push back the main snowfall to Sunday night/Monday AM.

The upper trof will split into two centers with the Southern Low Center the one to be respondsible for the majority of Mammoth’s precip as it swings through Southern Ca Sunday into Monday AM. Late Sunday afternoon into early Monday appears to be the best time for snowfall for Mammoth. However, we could start getting some flurries or showers anytime Saturday afternoon into the night.  No measurable precipitation is expected until very late Saturday at the earliest.   Amounts still look good with somewhare between .5 and 1.0 inches of precip in the form of snowfall….. so between 5 and 10 inches of snow is possible on Mammoth Mountain By Monday PM.

 

Weekend Outlook:

The next upstream system will slow as it approaches California with a lot of its energy dropping south along the Ca coast. Last nights EC was faster opening the upper low into an open Trof then kicking it though Southern Ca about 12 hours faster. The New 12z WRF continues the trend of last night 06z GFS and thus the slower model solutions are probably the ones to follow this morning.

Following the timing of precipitation of the 09z ESRL, 12z Thursday WRF, 12z GFS along with CRFC precip into the Central Sierra, it looks unlikely that much will fall if any in the Town of Mammoth until beginning mid-morning Sunday or even holding off until Sunday afternoon with the main amounts Sunday evening/night.

For the most part….this is a Monday Morning Plow for the town…..

Additionally, the low becomes more North/South orientated. Thus the upper flow responds from the South to even SSE. Not a good direction for a lot of snowfall here in the Eastern Sierra. So were probably looking at a system that will bring 3 to 5 inches at the village and 6 to possibly up to 8 inches over the upper elevations by Sunday night. The Dweebs will update the QPF if it changes either way tomorrow AM.  With this type of system….any slight change in the behavior of the closed low will effect the outcome of snowfall. At this time…..Most of the snowfall will occur Sunday morning into Sunday night.

Los Angeles could do quite well along the coastal sections with well over an inch of rain in many areas. It appears that the trof will open as a negative tilt system which could be quite dynamic for Southern Ca.

NEXT WEEK:

The southern branch of the jet stream will continue to be active into the Central and Northern Sierra.  Another trof will bring more snowfall by about mid-week.  The early part of the week looks unsettled as well with the chance of snow-showers as westerly flow continues….

 

Update Sat AM>>>>>

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Upper Ridge Aloft Will Build Through Tonight….Then begin Flattening In Response To The Next Significant Weekend System…

A short lived fair weather ridge will bring fair skies to the high country today through tomorrow morning while the next upper Trof progresses to the west coast. Both EC and GFS have come into excellent agreement on the weather system and although there does not appear to be a subtropical tap between the mainland and Hawaii “with the front that effects the Central Sierra Saturday”, there will be an active front that will come through late Saturday or Sat night with snowfall associated with the Front…..followed by another possible moisture surge associated with the upper low itself Sunday.

In the meantime, the weather will become increasingly windy Wednesday afternoon and into the night as a dry cold front moves into Mono County Thursday. The Dweebs are not sure if the front will make it as far south as Mammoth. So temperatures on Thursday will depend upon how far south it gets. IE whether or not Thursday will be warmer than Wednesday.  Nevertheless, the front is expected to be dry with no measurable precipitation other then the slight chance of a few isolated showers over the crest Thursday PM.

Winds will increase further Friday as the the next Cold Front approaches the west coast from the same long wave Trof. The Cold front moves inland Saturday with the FROPA for Mammoth expected later in the day. It looks like there will be a active frontal band that will bring a period of moderate snowfall to the high country Saturday afternoon with showers Saturday Night and another area of precipitation moving in Sunday afternoon into the night. Again…at this time I would classify the storm in the moderate range. Just a WAG at this point…..12 to 18 inches over the upper elevations and 6 to 12 in town….  The Dweebs will fine tune the system’s Mammoth Lakes snowfall with a QPF forecast Thursday for the weekend.

In the longer range the following system looks stronger for middle of next week and is coming in negative tilt……

High Temps will warm into the 50s mid week then cool down in the the low 30 by Sunday.

More Later……………………:-)

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Upper Trof slowly Progressing East As Upper Jet Translates Across The Sierra……Warmer Temps By Mid-Week……Next System Slowing Down….

Quick Update:

The MJO is building in Phase Space 6 with forecast to Phase 7 this week as it moves through the Western Pacific. The PNA is positive now and is expected to remain weakly positive for the foreseeable future with some strengthening possible at the end of the month.

This week will begin cold then warm to above normal by mid week as the off shore ridge builds over the state.  The mean position of the eastern pacific ridge will remain west of Hawaii, so the west coast will still be subject to weather systems effecting it.

With AAM on the increase and MJO headed for Phase space 8, the likelihood of large storms such as the one we had last weekend is becoming less likely through the end of the month and into early April….

This next weekends storm will be a slow mover and will take to the end of the weekend to get here. Both EC and GFS do get it here through eventually. The EC is the slowest and is currently preferred by MammothWeather.com.

 

RE: Weekend system:

Please revisit last weeks discussion in regards to the upcoming weekend system

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.