Zonal Flow Aloft Brings Lots oF High Clouds To The High Country Today Then Strong Height Rises to Bring a Touch of Early June Temperatures This Weekend…..
Wednesday April 18, 2012
Posted at 8:49 am by Howard
A west To east flow across the Eastern Pacific will drag lots of high clouds over the high country today. The next upstream system will amplify the pattern over the golden state with strong height rises and warmer temps along with clear skies Thursday. Further height rises are expected Friday as the upper ridge shifts over Ca this weekend with much above normal temps. High temps in Mammoth today will be in the upper 50s today…then low 60s Thursday. Expect highs in the upper 60s Saturday and close to 70 Sunday! If Mammoth hits 70 on Sunday that would be the first time this year!. Night time lows will be in the 30s…. Strong run-off conditions are expected this weekend so if you out near area streams be extra careful! Especially in the Walker River area to the north.
Also of interest…..there will be buildups of the Summertime Variety …..IE Towering Cu. This will be due to the high mid April Sun and the extra warm temps (Convection). Although our air-mass is pretty dry, there may be a few showers in the late afternoon and early evening hours over the crest, both Friday and Saturday….possibly some thunder!
Not much to chat about until we get closer to that time frame.
The ECMWF has the next upstream short wave trof splitting like the GFS. However, the EC “never” brings it inland through the west coast…..rather, it retrogrades it to the southwest and leaves it as part of a Rex block while building a ridge to its north near 145 to 155w. The result is a cold northwest slider that comes into California, early Thursday morning the 26th. This would be a very windy pattern with cold weather returning and the possibility of snowfall Thursday. The 1000-500mb thicknesses are in the 540dm to 546dm class with this pattern.
On the other hand…the GFS boots the cut-off to the coast then opens it into a trof over California Thursday/Friday during about the same time. Showers are certainly a possibility…however, unlike the EC, with a much higher snow level as the oncoming air mass is much milder. (500mb-1000mb)~(558dm-552dm) thickness. The GFS solution is much less dynamic and quite a bit different. Now with that said….the CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 days are wetter and colder than normal. However, they have exceptionally lower then normal confidence levels. IE 2 or 3 on a scale of 1 to 5. Apparently, they are leaning more toward the GFS solution which is less amplified.
The Dweebs will take a close look at this Monday AM……as well as the Fishing Opener…..>>>>
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.